Will the Houthis play a bigger role in the Iranian “Axis of Resistance” after the killing of “Nasrallah”?

In a recent speech, the leader of Yemen’s Houthi group proudly announced his group’s tally for 2023: The Houthis, who control much of northern Yemen, targeted 193 ships passing through their country and launched more than 1,000 missiles and drones at their enemies, including Israel, Abdulmalik al-Houthi announced on October 7, 2024. All of this, he said, was in support of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So far at least, nothing seems to have stopped the Houthis—no international naval task force to protect shipping in the Red Sea, no repeated airstrikes on areas they control. “The Houthis are stronger, more technically proficient, and more prominent members of the axis of resistance than they were at the start of the war,” Mike Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote in an October 2024 analysis.

The so-called “axis of resistance” consists of groups based in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, all of which are, to one degree or another, backed by Iran and opposed to Israel and the United States. “The Houthis have arguably managed to survive the year of war without major setbacks…and have put up the best military performance of all the players in the axis,” Knights explained.

As a result, the Houthis have become prominent members of the axis, with their leader, al-Houthi, even being promoted as a potential replacement for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by Israel in September 2024, and acting as a kind of symbolic leader of the pro-Iranian alliance.

“In Nasrallah’s absence, Abdulmalik al-Houthi has moved quickly to fill the void,” said Mohammed al-Basha, a US-based security analyst specializing in the Middle East and Yemen. “The Houthis have seized the spotlight.”

Will the Houthis become more annoying now?

Experts say it is highly likely, pointing to a number of factors. First, “their distance from Israel is an advantage: Unlike some other groups in the axis of resistance, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, the Houthis are more than 2,000 kilometers from Israel,” said Mohammed al-Basha.

“In addition, Hezbollah has been under Israeli surveillance for four decades, while knowledge of the Houthis remains limited in comparison,” the analyst added. The Houthis have also been fighting for decades, first as part of the opposition to the government in Yemen starting in 2004, then from 2014 in a civil war, and more recently against an international coalition that backed their opponents in the civil war.

“Over decades of conflict, the Houthis have dismantled every aspect of their operations, from fuel and food supplies to weapons manufacturing,” Al-Basha continued. Their bases are hidden in Yemen’s mountains and underground tunnels, making airstrikes less effective, he said, and their “strong record in ground operations” means no foreign power wants a ground invasion.

The Houthis have also established connections further afield. They have offices in Iraq and have claimed to have launched attacks on Israel in cooperation with Iranian-backed groups in Iraq.

Missiles from Iran

The Houthis are also likely to get better weapons support from Iran. “Prior to October 7, 2023, Iran was supplying the Houthis with older versions of missiles and drones,” Basha explained. “Now the Houthis are firing modified versions of the Iranian Khaybar Shaikan [medium-range ballistic missile]. It’s only a matter of time before Iranian supersonic Fateh missiles show up in Yemen—if they haven’t already.”

As Knights argued in his October study, Yemen would be an ideal location for such missiles because of its location and the ability to hide the weapons in mountains. Given their proximity to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the Houthis also have the ability to strike their neighbors and further disrupt global trade and business.

Earlier in October 2024, while announcing missile attacks on Israel, a Houthi spokesman said they considered all “American and British interests in the region within our range of fire.”

If Israel eventually attacks Iranian energy production facilities in response to Tehran’s latest missile attack, the Houthis may respond by targeting energy facilities of U.S. allies.

"We don't care"

There is another reason the Houthis are more important, and it is more ambiguous. It has to do with the group’s position. “After two decades of victories, the Houthis are emboldened,” Basha explained. “Many of their fighters have been fighting since their youth and have nothing to lose. This ‘why not?’ mentality gives them a strategic advantage, and they may push boundaries that others hesitate to cross.”

“For Iran, the Houthis are a burden and a form of influence,” said Ibrahim Jalal, a nonresident scholar and Yemen expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center. “They are an influence because of their unpredictability, but they are a burden in the sense that they constantly choose to escalate.”

Jalal recounts how at one point, shortly after the United States threatened a military response to the Houthi campaign against shipping, the Houthis began chanting at their rallies: “We don’t care, make it a major world war.”

“They don’t really care, it’s a bit abnormal,” Jalal says. “This reflects their level of disregard for the civilian population in Yemen, who have suffered massive humanitarian and economic conflicts over the past two decades. Now they [the Houthis] are calling for more escalation, like Israeli airstrikes on civilian infrastructure, which means the population is suffering even more.”

Source: European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies - Germany and the Netherlands ECCI