Military Expert: 10 Reasons Why Israel Cannot Destroy Iranian Nuclear and Oil Facilities

Over the past two weeks, there have been rumours in Israel that Tel Aviv will launch an attack on Iranian strategic sites within days, in response to the dozens of missiles that Tehran fired at Israeli targets on October 1, causing casualties, material damage and the closure of Israeli airspace.

At the time, Iranian officials declared that the attack was in response to Israel's assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and its massacres in Gaza and Lebanon.

Many analyses and media reports indicate that the Israeli response to Iran will be “firm and strong,” based on the meetings and discussions held by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the security cabinet. However, reports indicate American efforts to reduce the strength of the Israeli response and prevent escalation in the region.

10 reasons

To clarify the nature of this response and the scenarios it could take, military and strategic expert Colonel Hatem Al-Falahi explains - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - 10 important facts that could form a basis for determining the nature of the Israeli response, which are:

First - The Iranian nuclear program is distributed over a wide geographic area within Iranian territory, between approximately 17 nuclear sites.

These sites consist of 4 nuclear reactors, 4 heavy water manufacturing plants, 4 nuclear research centers, 3 uranium enrichment sites, in addition to 2 sites for manufacturing the bomb body and its detonator.

This means that this nuclear program is distributed over a vast area of Iranian territory, and this will create a very big challenge for the Israeli Air Force, because when the Iraqi nuclear program was destroyed, it was located in one area, and also in Syria, but in the Iranian case, parts of its program can be destroyed in certain areas, while the rest of the other areas will continue to operate with great effectiveness.

Secondly , if Israel wants to strike the Iranian nuclear program, it must simultaneously strike the air defense systems, missile platforms, communications centers, and command and control system in order to completely paralyze Iran so that it is unable to confront the attacking aircraft.

This means that the Israeli Air Force must be divided in two directions:

Section to strike military targets.

A division for striking nuclear targets reaching depths of more than 70 to 100 meters inside the ground.

Nature of airspace

Third : The great challenge facing the necessary quantities of bombs capable of destroying these reactors.

Can Israel secure the necessary quantities of these bombs that can penetrate these reactors and these sites, so that they reach this depth and cause destruction in one strike? Or does it need to re-strike these sites two or three times?

Fourth - If Israel wants to launch this strike, it must secure the stages of the aircraft's passage from Israel to the targets inside Iran, and this means that there must be approvals from the countries through which these aircraft will pass in order to carry out these strikes.

This point in particular will create a very big challenge for these countries, as Iran will discover these countries, and it has previously threatened that the lands that will be used to facilitate the passage of Israeli aircraft or the bases on which they are located will be considered a target for Iran, and this means that we will go to expand the conflict in the region significantly.

Fifth - The aircraft that will carry out this strike need to be refueled, which means that there must be friendly territory whose airspace these aircraft can use to stop in and provide the aircraft with the fuel they need.

This brings us back to the issue of these countries agreeing to use their airspace to provide an air umbrella for Israeli aircraft, and this will impose a very large air effort on Israel to direct this strike.

Sixth - As for destroying economic targets related to oil facilities, it may lead to a significant increase in prices in global markets, which will affect the American elections, and this option may affect the use of oil facilities in neighboring countries for Iran.

American participation

Seventh - There may be a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a ban on ships passing through it, which will create a new challenge by expanding the scope of this war to a new window of escalation to include the countries of the region in one way or another.

Eighth - There are some facilities that Israel can target if it wants to carry out a confrontation operation, and this is what I think is likely in the Israeli strike on Iran.

There are a number of Iranian bases and military targets that could be the best option for Israel in the targeting process, because Israel cannot be able to direct a devastating blow to the Iranian nuclear program, which is distributed over a large geographical area.

Ninth- Israel does not have the air capability and capacity to carry out such a strike against military targets, which means that if the United States does not participate in directing this strike, Israel will not be able to destroy the Iranian nuclear file.

Tenth - The US elections are imminent, and any Israeli escalation in the region will greatly affect these elections.

The military expert expected that Israel would resort to striking military targets, just as Iran targeted the Israeli interior by striking some military bases.

Al-Falahi concluded his analysis to Al Jazeera Net by saying that the challenges facing Israel are very great and include the geographical distance and distribution of the Iranian nuclear program, and the air density it needs to carry out this strike, especially since the aircraft that can carry these bombs are not present in Israel in sufficient quantities. Therefore, he suggested that Israel will not go to destroy the Iranian nuclear program except with American participation.

Source: Al Jazeera