Will Hezbollah accept separating the Gaza track and negotiate with Israel? What are the details of the proposed deal?

There has been much talk recently about the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, which would give Israel the opportunity to isolate itself in the Gaza Strip, as it had hoped since the war on the Strip began more than a year ago.

1/ What did the Israeli sources say?

Israel Hayom newspaper reported that Benjamin Netanyahu will hold consultations again today to discuss concluding an agreement to end the war on the Lebanese front.

The Israeli news website Walla reported that Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, envoys of US President Joe Biden, will visit Israel tomorrow, Thursday, in an effort to conclude an agreement to end the war in Lebanon.

This news coincided with what the American news website Axios reported, quoting American and Israeli officials, who believed that Hezbollah "has finally become ready to distance itself from the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip."

According to Axios, an agreement to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could be reached within weeks.

He pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the potential deal with ministers, army leaders and intelligence agencies.

2/ What are the details of the deal?

According to Axios, the agreement states:

• Declaration of a ceasefire followed by a 60-day transitional period.
• The agreement is based on the re-implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
• Hezbollah moves its heavy weapons north of the Litani River away from the Israeli border during the transitional period.
• During the transitional period, the Lebanese army will deploy about 8,000 soldiers along the border with Israel.
• The occupation army will gradually withdraw its forces to the Israeli side of the border during the transitional period.

3/ Were there any meetings regarding the alleged deal?

On October 21, Hochstein met in the Lebanese capital Beirut with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah who was tasked by the party to negotiate a ceasefire in the open confrontation with Israel.

Hochstein said that his visit aims to lay the foundations for ending this conflict by implementing Resolution 1701 "justly and transparently," stressing that Lebanon's future and its connection to conflicts cannot be in the interest of the Lebanese.

Hochstein is scheduled to visit Tel Aviv tomorrow, Thursday.

4/ What did Hezbollah say?

Mahmoud al-Qamati, Deputy Chairman of Hezbollah’s Political Council, responded to the American and Israeli talk about the deal and its promotion, saying that the party had not received “any project or political initiative officially.”

According to Al-Qamati, Hezbollah's priority now is the field, stressing that "Hezbollah does not accept any negotiations under fire," demanding that the aggression be stopped before discussing any political issue.

The party's position was previously expressed by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem when he confirmed in one of his speeches that Hezbollah called for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to stop the fire on Israel.

He stressed that "Israel and those behind it are fighting and committing massacres, and we are in a situation that requires us to take a position," noting that neither Lebanon nor the entire region can be separated from Palestine.

5/ Can the two tracks be separated?

Since the first day of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip on October 7 of last year, the party took a decision to support the resistance in Gaza, and the party did not accept a ceasefire before reaching an agreement in Gaza and a ceasefire there.

The party paid a heavy price for this position, represented by the assassination of its Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and a large part of the party’s first leadership.

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which is close to Hezbollah, quoted sources as saying that the party includes in its military statements the phrases that what the resistance is doing is supporting the resistance in Gaza, with the addition of the phrase “defending Lebanon,” and it has not made any commitment, to any party in Lebanon or outside it, to accept the disengagement between the Lebanese front and the Gaza front.

It also indicates that the party does not see, after all that has happened, and amid the continued Israeli brutality in Gaza, that it is logical to leave Gaza, and that such a position contradicts its entire ideological structure and political thinking, and its intimate knowledge of the real connection between all fronts related to the resistance against the enemy.

6/ Why does Israel want to separate the two tracks?

According to Dr. Walid Abdul-Hay, the Jordanian writer and academic researcher, Israel does not tend to negotiate with an “Arab bloc” but rather with each party alone. Fragmentation is the dominant idea in the mind of the Israeli negotiator, and it is certain that individual negotiation with each country makes the impact of the balance of power greater than the results of negotiation with a bloc.

According to Abdel Hai, Israel is currently seeking to put the important issues first, which are the issue of the hostages, destroying the resistance, and separating the Gaza track from the Lebanese, Yemeni, or even Iraqi track - security is its first priority - and then it will discuss the rest of the issues according to its schedule.

He believes that the most important test for the axis of resistance and the extent of its commitment is in the coming weeks, especially after the American elections, and the necessity of confirming the inseparable link between the axis’ fronts, as Israel will work to return to the tactic of division by saying a ceasefire in Lebanon, and then we will discuss the issue of Gaza.

7/ Why is there so much talk about stopping the war now?

Hebrew media described the current month of October as “Black October,” due to the number of deaths in the ranks of the Israeli occupation army. The occupation admitted that 80 soldiers and settlers were killed by resistance fire on various battlefronts, since the beginning of the month.

According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz - which quotes sources it described as informed - the security and military levels in Israel, including Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, have come to understand that the army has become exhausted, especially since during the past three months it has achieved what they describe as amazing military and intelligence achievements. Therefore, they see that the opportunity has now become real to reach a deal through which the prisoners from Hamas captivity will be returned and the war in Gaza and the north will end.

The Israeli security establishment also believes that if the war continues for a long time, it will be difficult to achieve much more than what has already been achieved, while remaining for a prolonged period inside Gaza and Lebanon increases the risk of entanglement and increases various losses.

Source: Al Jazeera + Agencies