Hochstein races against the days and the mines

Amos Hochstein, the US envoy to Lebanon, is racing against time. The world is only a few days away from the US presidential election. And as America waits for the name of the master of the White House to appear, the world waits with it.

The world reads about the decline of the West and the decline of America. It reads about the rise of China and the BRICS group and its economic and population weight. It reads about the rise of China and the “setting of the West.” But when the elections approach, the world discovers that America is still America. And that it is the key even to those who say it is the problem.

The people of the Middle East know this truth. America’s satire does not change the reality. The Middle East does not emerge from its wars until it passes through the American crossing. Vladimir Putin is immersed in the Ukrainian war. His military intervention in Syria has not doubled his presence in resolving the region’s crises. The need for the man sitting in the White House remains, even if he is not a candidate and the last leaves of his term are falling from the tree of his term.

Hochstein is now making a last-ditch effort. He will express to Benjamin Netanyahu Washington’s satisfaction that the Israeli response to Iran “expressed a desire not to expand the war.” He will renew America’s support for the Hebrew state, citing President Joe Biden’s satisfaction with Netanyahu’s cooperation with him in controlling the list of targets in Iran after months of misunderstandings, lack of affection and the presence of insults. Hochstein may be betting on a temporary ceasefire as a gesture from Netanyahu towards Kamala Harris and the possibility of her success after he was accused of wanting to see the White House fall once again into the grip of the surprise maker Donald Trump.

Hochstein will tell Netanyahu that Israel has made strategic gains in its war that must be invested at the negotiating table. Israel has reduced Hamas’s capabilities and killed Yahya Sinwar. It has dealt extensive blows to Hezbollah and its capabilities and killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah.

He will encourage him to “ceasefire in Gaza, which must remove the Strip from military confrontation, at least for a long time. And a ceasefire in Lebanon, which must remove the southern Lebanon front from the military aspect of the conflict, at least for a long time.” He will also say that Israel’s recent response to Iran confirmed its ability to reach any point there. This means that Israel has regained its deterrence capacity and it is time to return to the negotiating table.

I was struck by the words of the European diplomat who has a working and coordinating relationship with the American envoy. He told me that Hochstein would stress to Netanyahu that there is no way out of the war in Lebanon other than returning to the implementation of Resolution 1701. He would propose to him that he seek to market the idea of “international supervision” of the implementation to ensure “the absence of military infrastructure for Hezbollah south of the Litani River.”

The diplomat admitted that the hopes for the success of Hochstein's mission are very slim, but the idea of disengaging the arenas may tempt the Israeli side to make an attempt that it will not be difficult to back down from if the Lebanese side does not respond.

The diplomat added that Hochstein will point out to Netanyahu that a long war in Lebanon could threaten the cohesion of its security institutions, making it easier for Iran to fill the vacuum there and making the “day after” war in Lebanon as thorny and difficult as the “day after” problem in Gaza. Hochstein will advise building on the Lebanese government’s pledge to implement Resolution 1701 and send the army to the south.

He noted that CIA Director William Burns is also making a last-ditch effort in Doha regarding the hostages in Gaza. He expected Burns to tell Mossad chief David Barnea similar words, that it is time for a ceasefire in Gaza, even if it is in the form of a small deal that would establish the option of negotiating a broader deal.

Will Hochstein come out of his talks with Netanyahu with a justification for his trip to Beirut? It is difficult to predict in this context in light of the entanglement of wars and cards. We must first wait to learn Iran’s true reading of the Israeli attack on targets on its territory. The statement of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was general and leaves room for different interpretations. He said: “Israel’s attack should not be underestimated or exaggerated.” Others spoke about Tehran reserving its right to respond at the appropriate time. Reading Iranian signals is not easy anyway, especially in a situation of this kind.

It is natural for the Revolutionary Guards generals to feel provoked when Israeli fighter jets fly over Iran. The flight means they are capable of targeting oil and nuclear facilities that Netanyahu has responded to Biden’s call to avoid attacking.

Will the latest Israeli strike embarrass the Iranian authorities in front of their people and allies, or is it able to avoid a direct response that will certainly clash with America’s decision to defend Israel? If Iran chooses not to fall into the trap of clashing with America, does it have any other option than to respond through Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon? Can Iran accept the withdrawal of the Lebanese front from the conflict under the banner of Resolution 1701, which would mean the end of the “unity of arenas”? Can Hezbollah return to 1701 as if the “support front,” which cost so much, was a hasty decision taken by the party?

This is why Hochstein’s mission seems very difficult, and we may know the name of the new master of the White House over the sound of Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah missiles and drones. Moreover, it is not easy for Hochstein to sweep the mines in a handful of days. And while waiting for the conditions for a ceasefire to mature, the Netanyahu government will not hesitate to wipe out more villages in southern Lebanon. It has not learned from past experiences.

*Quoted from Asharq Al-Awsat