Between the Al-Aqsa Flood and the Yemeni Crisis... Where is the New Middle East Plan Going? (Analysis)

In every political or military event witnessed by the Arab region and its surroundings, the term “New Middle East” is present. This term refers to the desire of the United States and the West behind it to reshape the region in accordance with what is consistent with American and Western interests, whether the countries included in this plan are willing or rejecting it.

In contrast, the Arab regimes are content with cautious anticipation of the new Middle East plan, and this position of theirs puts them at the heart of the plan that may include changing some or all of these regimes or changing the maps of their countries, and creating more conflicts in the region, especially since Iran has preceded the implementation of the plan by seeking to benefit from it as it previously benefited from the American invasion of Iraq, and if it faces more pressure to be included in the plan, it seeks not to have its natural borders affected by what may be classified as a loss for it, unlike the Arab countries.

The Arab regimes believe that remaining subject to American policy will protect them from the new Middle East plan, even though they know that this policy is rejected by the Arab peoples, thus placing their fate between two internal and external forces capable of change, taking into consideration that any external force, no matter how great, remains temporary.

But the will of the people, even if it weakens sometimes, remains permanent and capable of exploding and causing change at any moment, and nothing is able to stop it. Therefore, these regimes try to create a kind of balance between the two forces, and all options require them to tip the scales in favor of the society they rule because it is the only guarantor of the regime’s survival.

Support the Palestinian cause

Normalization with the Israeli occupation is one of the most prominent characteristics of the new Middle East plan, and the Battle of the Flood of Al-Aqsa is one of the most prominent tools for rejecting and thwarting normalization and thus thwarting the plan. This leaves the Arab regimes with two options:

As Iran seeks to strengthen its influence in the region by supporting the Houthis and exploiting the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia to strengthen the Houthi position, the United States, in return, is trying to use the Yemeni crisis as a pressure card within the “New Middle East” project, and even if it directs strikes at the Houthis, it does not weaken them as much as it inflates them locally and internationally.

What makes the war in Yemen a major dilemma is that the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia for ten years is no longer willing to resolve the battle, and has come to believe that it is possible to contain the Houthis and push them toward peace, without there being any indicators that can be built upon regarding the Houthis’ position on peace.

The Houthis believe that signing any peace agreement means their defeat, and therefore they rejected the roadmap agreement drafted by Saudi Arabia, which is in their interest. War and instability are the natural state for the Houthis, who refuse to transform from an armed gang into a political component like any other political party in Yemen.

Risks and anticipation

As the Yemeni crisis continues without a solution, the humanitarian and economic conditions are worsening and the challenges and pressures on Saudi Arabia are multiplying, whether in terms of the ongoing security threats or the economic burden, which means that the continuation of the current situation in Yemen only serves the regional powers that seek to exploit the chaos in order to achieve their own goals at the expense of security and stability in the region, and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States will not be able to confront the external challenges that may increase and grow more without resolving the Yemeni war raging in their flank.

The most important question in this regard remains: Will Saudi Arabia and the Arab coalition it leads take serious steps to end the war in Yemen?! Or will it remain trapped in contradictory policies and hesitant positions that further complicate the situation and make its position weak in the face of regional challenges, and perhaps preoccupy the Kingdom with new internal challenges so that it becomes unable to influence beyond its borders?

The near future will reveal the ability of Saudi Arabia and the Arab countries to confront the current challenges, most notably the new Middle East plan. Either they will take bold steps to achieve stability in the region by resolving internal conflicts and wars, including the war in Yemen, and blocking the path to regional and international pressures and interventions, or they will remain in a cycle of waiting and anticipation, which may ultimately lead to the reshaping of the region in a way that does not serve their interests or the future of their peoples.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Abdullah Al-Samai - Yemeni journalist and political researcher