New York Times: Hamas will not be defeated in the war and may emerge stronger politically

The New York Times quoted analysts as saying that the recent strikes on the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), including the assassination of the head of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in the capital, Tehran, may be a short-term setback for the movement, but they are not enough to prevent it from emerging again intact, and perhaps more so. Tougher and stronger politically.

The newspaper said in an article by writer Erica Solomon published today, Sunday, that Hamas was subjected to a strong blow during the past days, first represented by the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, then Israel’s announcement that it had killed the Commander-in-Chief of the Martyr Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Muhammad al-Deif, at a time when it continued to wage the bloodiest war. faced by the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The author believes that in the first outcome, it appears that the latest result in the 30-year conflict between Israel and Hamas is a devastating result for the movement, and it is a result that casts doubt on its future. However, the history of Hamas, the evolution of Palestinian armed groups over the decades, and the logic of insurgency and resistance in general suggest that the movement will not only survive, but may emerge politically stronger.

Analysts and regional observers in contact with Hamas leaders believe that the setbacks that befell the movement provide Israel with a short-term victory, but do not provide it with long-term strategic success.

Tahani Mustafa, a senior analyst on Palestinian affairs at the International Crisis Group, said: “Instead of creating the shock they were hoping for, which would make the Palestinians afraid or completely defeated, these strikes will have the opposite effect, and Israel will have presented them with a trump card.”

The military campaign launched by Israel on the Gaza Strip led to the displacement of about 90% of the Strip’s population of two million people, destroyed large parts of its cities, and killed more than 39 thousand people, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza.

Despite this, Hamas is still active and recruiting new fighters in the Gaza Strip and outside, according to local residents and analysts. Fighters have also begun to reappear in areas from which Israel had expelled them months ago, and it has so far maintained reliance on its own resources even amid the tightening Israeli siege on Gaza.

For Hamas, as the author says, the logic of resistance means that simply remaining in the face of a much stronger army provides a symbolic victory. And with that comes a chance for survival that outweighs any pain Israel has caused.

The writer says that losing Haniyeh will also be difficult for Hamas. He was seen by regional analysts as a more moderate figure within the movement, acting as a bridge between Palestinian factions. He was also seen as a leader willing to advance diplomatic efforts, including ongoing if faltering ceasefire talks with Israel.

“With his assassination, the message is negotiations do not matter,” says Khaled Al-Jundi, an expert on Palestinian affairs at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Al-Jundi points out that he "sees no reason to conclude that Hamas may become irrelevant," adding, "The question is how will Hamas change after that? I think there is a strong argument that the leadership will become more extreme."

Israel's targeted assassination campaigns against its Palestinian and regional rivals have a controversial record, with critics long arguing that the tactic simply creates space for new parties or leaders to emerge as Israel's main enemies, often replacing them with more hard-line forces.

In the 1970s, Israel killed the military leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Wadih Haddad, leading to the collapse of that group. A decade later, it was replaced by a new Palestinian force: the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) led by Yasser Arafat. Israel also killed its military leader, Khalil al-Wazir (Abu Jihad), in April 1988 at his home in Tunisia, but it failed to paralyze the Fatah movement.

Since the early 2000s, Hamas has become the movement viewed by Palestinians as taking the reins of armed resistance against Israeli occupation, at a time when the military capabilities of other groups have faded, and in the case of Fatah the movement has abandoned a key strategy of armed struggle in favor of negotiations. .

As peace talks collapsed in the early 2000s, Hamas grew stronger. However, numerous Israeli assassinations of its leaders, including its founders, did not paralyze the movement.

Haniyeh's life story offers a different lesson about the unintended consequences of some of Israel's attempts to constrain Hamas. He was among 400 Palestinians expelled by Israel from Gaza to southern Lebanon, which was under Israeli occupation at the time. Instead of being marginalized, figures like Haniyeh have gained greater popularity and broader regional standing.

Perhaps the most important principle for Hamas' survival, according to Mustafa, is not to rely excessively on material support from its foreign supporters, a reliance that allowed Israel to exhaust the PLO in the 1970s and 1980s, she said.

So far, Hamas appears to have maintained this self-reliance even in light of the tightening Israeli blockade on the Gaza Strip.

Hamas fighters have their own engineers who know how to use anything they can find on the ground from supplies seized from Israeli bases or ambushes on Israeli vehicles, or by extracting materials from unexploded ordnance and downed drones.

“They got a lot of external support in terms of funding and training, but in terms of their logistics, a lot of it is home-made,” Tahani Mustafa said, “and that is why, even now, after almost 10 months, the resistance has not seen a decline.”

Not all Hamas observers believe that Hamas can withstand the current pressures. Some analysts, such as Michael Stevens of the Royal United Services Research Group in London, believe the strikes will cause enough temporary damage to force Hamas to make further concessions.

For his part, Akram Atallah, a political analyst from Gaza in Al-Ayyam newspaper, believes that even if Israel ultimately deals with Hamas with a fatal blow, the only question will be who will emerge next.

Atallah adds, "As long as there is occupation, the Palestinians will continue to fight, whether there is Hamas or not."

Source: New York Times