Four times bigger than the Exxon disaster.. Can the world stop a huge oil spill in the Red Sea?

The American website Vox warned that if efforts to stop the oil spill in the Red Sea fail, it will be one of the worst oil spills in history. Since being attacked by Houthi rebels in Yemen three weeks ago, a tanker carrying nearly a million barrels of crude oil has become disabled and burning in the Red Sea.

The site said in a report translated by "Yemeni Youth Net" that the ship "MV Sunion" is still intact, but it may not remain so for long, and if it sinks, it could lead to one of the largest oil spills in history, almost four times larger than the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989.

This would have enormous environmental and economic consequences for a region already besieged by war, and would put the livelihoods and safe drinking water of millions of people at risk. Efforts to salvage the ship are likely to begin soon, but it is a high-risk operation in an active conflict zone, and success is far from guaranteed.

“This is a disaster waiting to happen, and I don’t think everyone involved fully understands the challenge it poses, or the consequences of not meeting that challenge,” Ian Ralby, CEO of maritime security firm Consilium, told Fox. “We are staring at a generational problem that is more serious than almost any other oil spill.”

On August 21, the Greek tanker Sunion, carrying crude oil from Iraq to Greece, was attacked for the first time by Houthi rebels who fired small arms and rockets, as well as a drone boat.

The day after the attack, a French destroyer rescued the ship's crew of 23 Filipinos, two Russians and four private security guards, but the Sonion itself is disabled and is currently anchored between the coasts of Eritrea and Yemen. On August 27, Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder told reporters that an initial attempt to rescue the ship had been abandoned after the rescuers were "alarmed" by the Houthis.

On August 29, the Houthis placed explosives on the ship and blew it up, releasing a video of themselves carrying out the operation. Shortly thereafter, Iran, the Houthis’ main international sponsor, said the group would allow a rescue operation.

A senior Houthi leader, Mohammed al-Houthi, said they would allow the rescue operation in order to prevent environmental damage, but “the US and UK will be responsible for any oil spill because of their support for Israel.”

The situation appeared to be on the way to being resolved in early September, when an operation involving tugboats protected by European naval vessels began to rescue the Sunion. But on September 3, Operation Aspedes, the EU’s naval operation in the area, said in a statement that “the private companies responsible for the salvage operation concluded that the conditions were not in place to carry out the towing operation and that it was not safe to proceed. The private companies are now exploring alternative solutions.”

In a statement provided to Fox News, Delta Tankers, the tanker’s owner, said it was “doing its best to move the vessel (and cargo). For security reasons, we are not in a position to comment further.” The EU’s Aspides operation did not respond to a request for comment.

So far, the U.S. military does not appear to be involved in the rescue efforts, with U.S. military deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh telling reporters at a September 5 briefing: “The U.S. Navy stands ready to assist, but at this time I am told that this is being done through private means.”

Greece, the country holding the ship, is in talks with Saudi Arabia about options, which could include towing it to a Saudi port or trying to transfer the oil to another ship before it sinks, trade magazine Maritime Executive reported.

On September 12, Reuters reported that another rescue operation would begin soon. But there is no guarantee that the Houthis will not strike again, and experts say companies specializing in this type of operation are not used to doing so in the middle of a war zone.

“Even though the Houthis have given the green light to tow this ship, they are still attacking ships around it,” Mohammed Albasha, a security analyst at Navanti Consulting Group, told Fox. “So insurance companies and salvage companies are not comfortable with this. There is no trust between the international community and the Houthis.”

But with the ship still burning, there may not be much time left. Like all oil tankers built since the Exxon Valdez disaster, the Sunion has a double hull and will not easily leak any oil, and its oil tanks appear to be intact.

But depending on how much damage it has already sustained, how much oxygen the oil cargo has been exposed to, and the intensity of the fire, it is likely just a matter of time. “We don’t know how long the ship will survive and if the fires are not put out, it will eventually sink,” Ralby said.

Exxon Valdez - 4 times

If the Sunion spills, it could rank among the world’s worst environmental disasters. The Red Sea, being a mostly enclosed body of water — with the Suez Canal to the north and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the south — doesn’t have the same level of circulation and dilution as the open ocean, making oil more likely to stick in place, Julien Jreissati, Greenpeace’s Middle East and North Africa program director, told Vox.

“You can’t clean up an oil spill,” Jreissati said. “You can try to contain it and mitigate it, but the effects and the remnants will last for decades.” The difficulties involved in such an operation would be much greater in an active combat zone.

“The Red Sea is a true natural treasure,” he added. “It contains coral species that are among the most resilient to climate change and bleaching, and are therefore particularly valuable because they can help provide a solution for coral reefs around the world.”

The impact would not be limited to underwater. A major oil spill could devastate the region’s fisheries, a staple of economies on both sides of the sea. (Before the civil war broke out in 2015, fish were Yemen’s second-largest export after oil and gas.) An oil spill could also cut off port access for desperately needed humanitarian aid.

It could also further disrupt shipping through the Red Sea, which has already fallen by about two-thirds due to Houthi attacks, raising shipping costs and causing further ramifications along the global supply chain.

Much also depends on the timing of the oil spill. Right now, the Red Sea’s surface current is flowing south toward the Indian Ocean. In October, the current will shift and begin flowing north toward Saudi Arabia and Egypt. A major concern is that an oil spill could contaminate coastal desalination plants that tens of millions of people in countries bordering the Red Sea depend on for fresh water.

One of the cruel ironies of this situation is that the Red Sea region has recently escaped a similar disaster. The Safer, a 1970s-era tanker converted by the Yemeni government into an offshore oil platform, is moored off the central Yemeni city of Hodeidah, unmaintained and rapidly corroding. It holds more than a million barrels of oil, roughly the same amount as the Sunion.

By 2021, it had become clear that the ship was at risk of sinking or exploding. A risk assessment at the time estimated that it could impact the livelihoods of up to 1.6 million people, disrupt 50 percent of Yemen’s fisheries, and that cleanup costs alone would exceed $20 billion.

After years of negotiations with the Houthis, a UN-organized operation to remove the oil from the ship was finally organized. The operation was completed in August 2023, almost a year before the current crisis began. This time, the international community had much less time to act.

Why are environmental disasters increasing in the Red Sea?

But hopefully there will be time for private companies and militaries in the region to organize a rescue mission—before the worst-case scenario occurs. But even if the tanker itself does not cause the disaster, it is just one reminder of the risks of the nearly year-long conflict in Gaza. The Houthis attacked, but did not disable, two more oil tankers in early September, even as the tanker continued to burn.

Then there’s the Rubimar, the first ship to be sunk by Houthi attacks in March. Although carrying only a fraction of the oil carried by the Sunion, the Rubimar left an 18-mile-long oil slick in the Red Sea. The bigger concern is that 22,000 metric tons of fertilizer remain in the ship’s hold, which, if released underwater, could cause widespread algae blooms that would devastate local species and create oxygen-free “dead zones.”

Experts believe the cargo will remain in the holds of the Rubimar for years, but not indefinitely, and the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency, has appealed for funding to clean up the site.

Greenpeace’s Jreissati sees the crisis as a reminder that the global economy, even in the best of times, depends on “these huge ships that travel around the world all the time carrying very toxic materials. It’s a time bomb.” It’s also a reminder that the longer the escalating conflict in the Middle East continues, the more risks become and the less predictable they become.