How will Trump deal with the Yemen war.. and will he take a firmer stance towards the Houthis? (Analysis)

With Donald Trump set to return to the White House in January 2025 after comfortably winning the November presidential election, expectations and tensions over his foreign policy moves are already rising—particularly in relation to the Middle East.

Trump is expected to offer unequivocal support for Israel and return to the tough containment approach to Iran that have been hallmarks of his first term as president. He may also offer strong support to other U.S. allies in the region, particularly Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

But how can his administration deal with Yemen and the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea?

Under the outgoing Joe Biden administration, Washington has been leading a coalition of more than 20 countries through Operation Sentinel of Prosperity since December 2023, which aims to protect international shipping in the Red Sea.

The alliance came to counter the Houthis' targeting of international trade in the vital waterway, which the group says primarily targets ships linked to Israel to show solidarity with the Palestinians and pressure Israel to end its assault on Gaza.

Biden backtracks on Yemen, Houthis

The current US position represents a significant reversal from Biden’s previous policies on Yemen and the Houthis. One of his first foreign policy actions was to suspend offensive arms sales to Saudi Arabia in February 2021 in response to diplomatic backlash following the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Yemen.

The move dramatically scaled back the Saudi-led coalition’s bombing campaign, which began in March 2015 in the wake of a Houthi rebellion the previous year. Biden’s policy shift helped pave the way for a U.N.-brokered ceasefire in April 2022, leaving Yemen in a fragile state of “no peace, no war.”

Biden also lifted the Houthis’ designation as a foreign terrorist organization and a specially designated global terrorist, a policy that Trump implemented during his first term. The change was intended to allow humanitarian aid to reach Yemen, but it also ended the Houthis’ international isolation.

With Yemen in political stalemate, the Houthis have consolidated their control in Yemen, with help from Iran, which has supplied them with advanced weaponry, including long-range drones, missiles, and even hypersonic missiles capable of reaching Israel and targeting Red Sea shipping lanes.

In short, the Houthis have become a more powerful force since the last Trump presidency. Despite limited airstrikes by the United States and the United Kingdom aimed at degrading the Houthis’ capabilities, the group has remained resilient.

Although they have suffered some losses, their actions, which they continue to portray as support for the Palestinians, have gained them unprecedented popularity in Yemen and other Arab countries, enhancing their influence.

“Trump inherited the actions of the US-led coalition against the Houthis from the Biden administration, so these operations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will continue as long as the Houthi attacks continue,” said Ahmed Naji, a Yemen researcher at the International Crisis Group.

Will Trump take a tougher stance?

How might Washington's Gulf partners react?

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have led the war in Yemen, may have new expectations of a Trump presidency.

Although Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have tried to distance themselves from the Red Sea crisis, Bahrain's participation in US-led naval operations in the Red Sea indicates implicit support for Washington's position.

The two countries have also worked to maintain relations with Iran after a rapprochement in late 2020, which gained momentum after a China-brokered normalization deal between Riyadh and Tehran in March 2023.

But it remains uncertain whether Riyadh will abandon its relations with Tehran under pressure from Trump.

Above all, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has already seen a shift from unconditional support for Trump to strained relations with Biden, learning in the process that relying on the United States may not always be a safe bet.

Still, Trump is known for his steadfast support for Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and there is a distinct possibility that Trump will once again try to leverage Washington’s regional partnerships to confront Iran.

“The Trump administration could deepen security and defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, potentially strengthening their air and missile defenses against the Houthis,” said Thomas Juneau.

Nadwa Al-Dosari also expects Trump to work to strengthen partnerships with regional allies to reduce US ground intervention while indirectly working to confront the Houthis.

Direct conflict remains undesirable for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which are focused on economic reform and fear the diplomatic costs of the Yemen war. Both countries have painful memories of Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities in 2019 and Abu Dhabi in 2022.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, said that while Riyadh and Abu Dhabi may support the "maximum pressure" campaign to the extent that it degrades Iran's regional proxies, they are currently content with rapprochement with Iran.

“No Gulf state wants to be seen as being on the ‘front line’ in a regional war between the United States or Israel against Iran, and there is no willingness to bear the brunt of being a major partner to the United States in the event of a regional war,” he said.

The only unlikely scenario, Dr. Craig added, is that Trump offers Saudi Arabia a comprehensive defense deal. However, this is unlikely to pass Congress and may depend on Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel.

While a major shift in US policy in the Red Sea and Yemen seems unlikely, given Biden’s recent moves to confront the Houthis, Trump’s approach will also depend on his handling of Israel’s conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

If Trump seeks a ceasefire in the two wars, as Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have called for, the Houthis may be forced to scale back their attacks in the Red Sea, albeit in the short term.

However, as the Houthis become a potent force in the Red Sea, the threat they pose to trade and stability is likely to persist, potentially prompting a more forceful response from Trump in the future, though his precise strategy remains uncertain at this point.

• Source: the new arab - Jonathan Fitton Harvey