Military escalation ruled out.. Analysts: Trump administration will adopt a firm policy against the Houthis targeting their resources

Analysts have spoken about the Trump administration's expectations of dealing with the Houthis during his presidency in the White House, who have continued their attacks in the Red Sea for about a year, following the start of the Israeli war of extermination in Gaza.

The Houthi attacks on maritime navigation in the Red Sea are among the most prominent challenges facing the United States. A report published by the American website "Al-Hurra" in the Arabic version asked: What are the options of the new US administration to confront this threat?

Analysts who spoke to the site saw that Trump's options are highlighted in tightening sanctions, continuing what he had started at the end of his previous term in late 2019, when he classified the Houthis as a terrorist group and ended American support provided to areas controlled by the Houthis.

Analysts rule out that Trump will make a decision to wage war against the Houthis because the majority of those he appointed to his administration reject launching new wars and believe in imposing harsh sanctions by applying pressure at the highest levels to change the Houthis’ policies.

firm policy

Richard Weitz, an American political and military analyst at the Hudson Institute, believes that US foreign policy under President-elect Trump towards the Houthis cannot be viewed in isolation from Iran. He said: “Certainly Washington will impose a lot of “severe sanctions on Iran and its agents in the region, including the Houthis, and this will be in two directions.”

He explained that Washington's policy towards the Houthis "will necessarily be firm, but it will be gradual, with the imposition of maximum sanctions on them, and limiting their financial resources, not to mention expectations of reclassifying them as a terrorist organization," according to what was reported by the Alhurra website.

The administration of US President Joe Biden had committed to protecting shipping in the Red Sea against attacks by the group, which receives support from Iran. In November 2023, the Houthis began launching missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, first on commercial ships they considered to be linked to Israel or heading to its ports, stressing that this came in support of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Targeting financial resources

“Peace through strength,” is how Mohammed Al-Basha, a security analyst specializing in Middle East affairs in Washington, predicts Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East and toward the Houthis during his second term.

Al-Basha, founder of the Washington-based consulting group Al-Basha Report, believes that the Trump administration will work to “isolate the Houthis diplomatically, politically and financially, by imposing sanctions aimed at drying up their financial resources rather than military escalation.”

Al-Basha added that Washington may conduct a "comprehensive re-evaluation of US aid to Yemen, especially in areas under Houthi control, which could lead to significant funding cuts, as the United States is the primary funder of the UN humanitarian response plan for Yemen."

He added that the positions of Trump's top appointees, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mark Waltz, and US Ambassador to the United Nations Elise Stefanik, suggest that "the Houthis will be redesignated as a foreign terrorist organization within the first 100 days of his term."

A report prepared by UN experts and published in early November warned that the Houthis in Yemen are turning into a “powerful military organization” that is expanding its operational capabilities thanks to “unprecedented” military support, especially from Iran and Hezbollah.

Trump's policy will be determined by the Houthis

Trump's policy toward the Houthis may be "determined by the Houthis themselves, as their actions will determine how the next administration will deal with them," says Richard Chazdi, a professor of political science at George Washington University.

He said, "This policy will also be determined by Iran's actions. If Tehran activates its agents, this will make Washington respond firmly to all of them," according to what was reported by Alhurra website.

He added: "Trump has to deal with a different reality in the Middle East than what things were like during his first administration, as Saudi Arabia, which was leading a coalition against the Houthis, has become closer to Iran with Chinese mediation, not to mention its desire to withdraw in any way from the war in Yemen.

The war in Yemen subsided significantly in April 2022 when a six-month UN-brokered truce came into effect, and has remained at a low level since then.

The academic Chazdi said that the geopolitical changes will be like a “puzzle” for Trump, especially in light of what is happening in Lebanon, Gaza and the Red Sea, as events may require him to “accelerate the pace of direct attacks against the Houthis, which may require strengthening the US military forces present in the Red Sea, which contradicts Trump’s isolationist policy of withdrawing US forces from many areas around the world.”

Will he escalate militarily against the Houthis?

Waitz rules out that Washington will go to war against the Houthis or Iran, pointing out that even those chosen by Trump to manage the foreign policy file in his administration are not enthusiastic about wars, as much as the policy of maximum pressure through sanctions will be used to push Iran to change its policies in the region, which means changing the policies of the Houthis.

He noted that this does not mean that Washington will not respond to any attacks by Iran and its proxies that target the security of the Red Sea, Israel, or US allies in the region.

In an attempt to deter them, US and British forces, jointly or on their own, have been launching strikes on their positions in Yemen since January 12. Academic Chazdi does not believe that the Trump administration will refrain from using force against the Houthis and Iran, noting that Trump’s talk that “there will be no war during his term” is “nothing but a slogan to attract American voters.”

He said, "Trump is ultimately governed by calculations of relations and interests, whether on a personal or even official level," stressing that "it is illogical to make statements that the United States will not wage war during the next four years."

Analyst Al-Basha does not expect Washington's Red Sea policy to shift "from defense to offense" unless the Houthis continue to target U.S. naval vessels, military personnel, or interests, in line with Trump's assertive foreign policy approach and his willingness to respond decisively to threats.

It is believed that if the Houthis continue to launch attacks, Washington may launch direct or long-range strikes against Houthi leaders as a means of deterrence. Although Trump has stressed avoiding large-scale wars, his record in his first administration included the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq, which may indicate his willingness to use force to protect American interests without engaging in a long-term conflict.

Al-Basha explains that President-elect Trump, during his first term, allied with “Saudi Arabia and the UAE to increase pressure on the Houthis and their Iranian backers, a strategy that is likely to continue,” noting that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi no longer have any more military operations against the Houthis, which also reinforces the reduction of the hypothesis of large-scale US military intervention.

He says the United States could launch an attack, or escalate in the Red Sea, in one case “if Houthi attacks harm American personnel or warships.”

Just as he is expected to demand a greater role from NATO and the European Union in the Ukraine war, Trump will also demand a greater role from them in Red Sea operations, especially since the shipping and trade corridors in this region affect Europe and China more than the United States, and he will call for greater international contributions to secure these vital trade routes, according to Al-Basha.

Source: Yemen Youth Net + Alhurra