US report: 9 commercial ships monitored in the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa at the moment of the Israeli attack

The American S&P Global website, which specializes in energy affairs, said that navigation in the region was severely affected by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, warning that the escalation of the conflict increases the risks to energy supplies in the Middle East.

Oil storage facilities and energy infrastructure at the Red Sea ports of Hodeidah and Ras Isa in Yemen were attacked and set on fire by the Israeli military on September 29.

In a note, security consulting firm Ambry said, "Seven commercial vessels were spotted in Hodeidah and two in Ras Isa when the incident occurred."

A Panamanian-flagged oil tanker anchored off Ras Isa at the time of the attack was under investigation by a nonprofit called United Against Nuclear Iran over alleged Iranian trade, according to the memo.

These attacks come after a major campaign to attack commercial shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait by Houthi rebels, which caused major disruption to oil supplies in the region.

Houthi attacks have prompted many shipping companies to reroute shipments around Africa, which is much longer and more expensive.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that crude, condensate and refined products supplies through the Bab al-Mandab will be around 3.3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2024 – half the average daily supply volume in 2023.

Regional conflicts

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated in recent days with Israeli attacks on Lebanon, including the assassination of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on September 28.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said the recent events were “a catalyst for global oil prices” and “the risk of conflict escalation remains a key concern,” especially if Iran or the Houthis retaliate, but “the weekend’s events did not impact physical oil supplies” per se.

Yemen’s oil sector has been severely damaged by civil war and underinvestment. Crude oil production has fallen from 300,000-400,000 barrels per day in 2011 to around 10,000 barrels per day. All of this is refined locally.

Yemen receives refined products from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India, and its main crude oil pipeline runs to the Ras Isa terminal.

Data from S&P Global Commodities at CSE indicates that refined product imports have reached 3.3 million barrels at Hodeidah and Ras Isa this year.

Tracking cargoes and vessels has been difficult as ship operators often turn off the Automatic Identification System in the area for safety or legal reasons, according to industry participants.