After Germany's decision to avoid the Red Sea, a European magazine asks: Is Western naval power in danger?

A European magazine considered that the decision of German warships to avoid the Red Sea so as not to fall into the range of the Houthi rebels is an indication of the worrying decline of Western naval power.

"The German decision sparked immediate outrage in the international maritime community amid calls for a global coalition to destroy the Houthis' ability to block shipping," CEPA magazine, a European policy think tank, said.

The report stated that the threat posed by non-state actors in the vital waterway, and the German government's response, raised important questions about the future of naval warfare.

In May, the German Navy sent its frigate F-125 Baden-Württemburg and supply ship Frankfurt am Main on a round-the-world mission, which included sailing through the disputed Taiwan Strait.

It was a firm statement by the government in Berlin about the importance of the Indo-Pacific and freedom of passage in international waters. But the German Navy followed up by announcing that the two ships would detour around the Cape of Good Hope on their way home, to avoid the risk of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Germany's decision to avoid the Red Sea

The change in course, announced in late October, came after several European navies, including French, Italian, Greek and British, deployed to the area to escort commercial vessels. They neutralized Houthi attacks using anti-ship ballistic missiles and drones.

The German decision sparked immediate outrage in the international maritime community, the report said. James Rogers, research director at the Geostrategy Council, called the situation “shameful,” while retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis called it “simply ridiculous.” In a post on Twitter, Stavridis called for “a global coalition to destroy the Houthis’ ability to shut down shipping.”

The Houthi attacks mark the first time in decades that most European navies have been exposed to real combat, in a way that few would have imagined possible even a few years ago. It is also the first time that anti-ship ballistic missiles have been used—a non-state actor that uses them against non-military targets, the report said.

The response, in the form of the US-led Operation Prosperity Sentinel (launched in December 2023) and the EU-led Operation Aspides (launched in February 2024), seems proportionate when the goal is to avoid escalating tensions in a region already inflamed by the conflict in Gaza and Iran’s attacks on Israel.

But compared with previous operations, such as Operation Desert Storm in 1991, in which the U.S. Navy achieved overwhelming naval control around the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Aden after Iraq invaded Kuwait, the Red Sea crisis illustrates a marked decline in Western naval power.

This trend became clear during Operation Unified Protector in 2011, when the United States was the only force capable of carrying out a campaign of suppression and destruction of air defenses against Libya. Some European navies withdrew units they had deployed to the region.

More than three decades after the end of the Cold War, the commitment of allied nations to maintaining stability through strong naval power and control of the seas appears to have partially faded. The negative effects of declining investment and a land-based mentality have eroded Western naval power, as demonstrated by the US Navy’s Gaza dock disaster.

The enemy in the Red Sea has no conventional armed forces, let alone something resembling a navy, but the threat posed by attacks like those by the Houthis is enormous.

Maritime trade and the vital infrastructure of submarine cables and pipelines form the economic backbone of a highly globalized society, and navies provide the best protection.

As Alessio Patalano, professor of military history at King's College London, has pointed out, "In the century of contested seas, we must start thinking of navies as the ultimate insurance policy for national security."

However, navies need sustained investments to build and maintain their capabilities, investments that must be based on a coherent maritime strategy that emphasizes the importance of the sea to economic prosperity.

"There is no doubt that naval power has returned to play an active role in enhancing international security," the report said.

Although this is a different kind of sea power, where the success of naval forces depends on the importance of the littoral and the ability to withstand a range of conventional and unconventional threats, it is still a sea power. The ways and means of building and sustaining it have not changed.