The disintegration of Yemen into three colonies

There is a careful balance between the gains of the three countries: Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It is not expected that there will be an urgent, significant change in the tripartite map. Disintegration states do not survive by a stroke of luck, and long wars that go to a truce, after exhaustion, if they return, they take a political form, not a military one, that is, they return as a maneuver.

As happened in Germany after the Second War, four countries kept their gains from German lands: Germany, “Russian, American, French, and British.” Cautious balances continued until the entire shape of the global system changed, that is, more than forty years. More than ten years ago [20 years after German unification] the tour guides used to tell us - on the buses in Berlin: We are now leaving Russian Berlin and we will enter American Berlin.

Yemen's papers are all abroad. We remember that a joke was made on us two years ago. At that time, men and women went to Riyadh to discuss the affairs of their country. The pictures taken of them, at their desks writing down their powerful notes, were reassuring. They went to sleep, as every expatriate does, with in their imaginations the brilliant things they would write tomorrow. They woke up to a new president, and they have not yet been able to see their old one.

The new president is a “decision” taken by officers from both countries, and approved by the politicians of both countries. As a man with a doctorate degree, intelligence and experience, he knows his presidential job: to guard the gains of the three countries and acknowledge the fragmentation. The three countries do not want a hybrid war again. There is enough room for maneuvers and quarrels, and even for the threat of war. But there is no place for war.

Each country has set the level of “unacceptable” in its own section. America, the only player outside the trio, accepted the game, and even wanted it. The fascist regime in Sanaa represents a trump card for the United States, through which it can lead Saudi Arabia in any direction it wants. The UAE's occupation of the southern lands represents an Israeli - and necessarily American - interest, especially with regard to influence over the seas, islands and international waters.

Iranian missiles in Sanaa enable America to impose its influence on Saudi policy. Houthi missiles represent a strategic interest for the US administration.

In an exciting report written by David Rosenberg on Foreign Policy [he is also the economic editor of Haaretz] about “Why did the Arab countries not sever their relationship with Israel?” he said that Saudi Arabia wants, by all means, American support in order to obtain a nuclear infrastructure, and in order to protect it properly. A year from Iran and its arms. America exploits this Saudi need and keeps the challenges as they are, and for that reason also takes them to normalization with Israel.

The pressure of the "Shiite world" on Saudi Arabia threw it into the tiger's nest. This pressure must continue so that Saudi Arabia does not assume an independent position on the changing international stage. Especially with Iran more integrated into the Russian-Chinese axis than ever before.

Yemen is a country under occupation, all its cards are abroad. Many generations will live under this fate. The most that can be achieved now, through internal effort or external consensus, is “improving the lives of Yemenis.” Opening roads, facilitating the movement of ports, opening airports, medical and relief missions, perhaps an attempt to unify the currency, and other matters of a logistical and not political nature.

Just as it is said when talking about Palestine. Improving the lives of the Yemenis does not mean, at all, empowering them with their unified state, or with their sovereignty over their country.

At the forefront there are politicians who play bureaucratic roles that take into account the interests and consensus of the colonizers. If Iran has agreed to abandon attacking Ma'rib, as part of its efforts to build some bridges with the Gulf, it will not accept changing the rules of engagement, such as besieging Sana'a and pushing it into a corner. Saudi Arabia will return to respecting the rules of engagement, as it does in the south with its other opponent, the UAE.

The UAE has a veto on the export of oil from its southern colonies, and Saudi Arabia has no choice but to respect that veto. There must be a balance between the interests of the three colonialists. That is: calming and calming the Yemeni file so that the three sisters can move on to other places and distant issues.

The Central Bank's maneuver, and the Houthi threats it entailed, will lead to some settlement, that is, to a return to the rules of engagement agreed upon between the three countries.

It is unlikely that the Yemeni colonies will witness real change in the coming years. This will not be possible in isolation from major changes that strike the global system and redraw the map of influence, power, and poles.

(From the author's page)