An Israeli military analyst predicts the form of the Iranian response and reviews Tehran's "weak points."

An Israeli military analyst reviewed the limits and restrictions of the upcoming Iranian response to the assassination of the head of the Political Bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, and called for reducing the level of Israeli concern about the expected attack.

Ron Ben Yishai - in an article in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper - expected that Tehran would try to avoid causing heavy losses or destruction on the home front and civilian infrastructure, so as not to provoke a "devastating reaction" from the Israeli army, considering that the United States and what he called the international coalition would stand by Israel will constitute a deterrent factor and a major restriction on the scale of the response.

The Israeli military analyst said - in the introduction to his article - "I dare say that it is possible to reduce the level of anxiety, and perhaps panic, that controls large sectors of the Israeli public."

He continued, saying, "Iran and its proxies have accumulated impressive capabilities to launch ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, including explosive ones. They may attack the border areas in the Golan and the Upper Galilee in northern Israel, and they may also try to harm Israeli institutions and individuals abroad. But at the same time, “Iran and its proxies are subject to a series of heavy restrictions that will almost certainly curb their lust for revenge and devastating strikes.”

He added, "It is reasonable to assume that Iran - in light of the efforts that Iran is currently investing in the international arena and the hostile statements by the leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and senior Iranian politicians - intends to launch an open campaign against Israel. A campaign that will last perhaps two or three days, in which agents participate and try to “Challenge the defense and interception systems of Israel and the US-led coalition, but it will be measured, and not very destructive.”

"Iranian weaknesses"

He added, "Failure in the planned attack will only exacerbate the impact and impression left by the assassination of Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran among Iranian civilians. Therefore, they and their agents are already planning to respond based on the lessons learned from the failure of the strike last April," according to his assessment.

Ben Yishai spoke in some detail about the possible Iranian attack plans, and said, “It is very likely that the Iranians will try to launch Khaybar missiles in the first barrage (with a range of two thousand kilometers, and a speed of up to 16 times the speed of sound).”

He added, "At the end of their path, they may launch warheads at a number of targets in Israel, and challenge the Arrow (Hetz) and David's Sling systems, which are capable of intercepting missiles, assuming that Israel does not possess a large quantity of these expensive interceptor missiles," noting that The Iranians, however, have limitations in the number of launchers that will launch missiles and the need for significant coordination with the “axis of resistance.”

He believed that the operation this time is “more complex for the Iranians and will require complex and long preparation for technical reasons, and it also requires a lot of coordination efforts between Iran and its agents in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Just as a reminder, Israel assassinated Hassan Mahdavi, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria (by bombing). Iranian Consulate) on April 1, and Iran did not begin responding until 13 days later.”

He said, "It will be a difficult technical and artistic confrontation, especially a battle of minds, but it is reasonable to assume that the Iranians will try to strike mainly military targets, and will not cause heavy losses or destruction on the home front and infrastructure facilities so as not to push Israel to respond to them in the same way."

The role of Hezbollah

As for the role of Lebanese Hezbollah in the response, the Israeli analyst believes that the party will not participate with its full force in the response by launching light, fast-explosive drones.

He said, “The speeches of Nasrallah (Hezbollah Secretary General) and statements made by figures in Iran and Lebanon indicate that the Iranians do not want Hezbollah to use the full power of its arsenal. The Iranians want Hezbollah, their long strategic arm, to preserve its capabilities for the day when it is exposed.” "Iran and its nuclear facilities will be subjected to a strong attack."

He added, "The other reason Hezbollah does not use its full force is the general dangerous situation in Lebanon and the fear of its residents that the fate of their country and people will be the same as the fate of Gaza. Therefore, Hezbollah will work, but apparently separately, to avenge the killing of Fouad Shukr in Beirut, He was the most senior military figure in the organization.

Source: Yedioth Ahronoth