What is the leaked intelligence about Israel's plans to attack Iran?

Discussion of Israel's use of nuclear weapons has emerged in leaked intelligence over the past few days. In one document, the United States specifically refers to Israel's ability to deploy a nuclear weapon, although it classifies it as low.

“We have not observed any indications that Israel intends to use nuclear weapons,” is the closing line of a leaked (or hacked) US intelligence document published online this week and reported by US media outlets.

As Axios reported last Saturday, “US officials are deeply concerned about a potential major security breach after two alleged US intelligence documents about Israeli preparations to attack Iran were published via an Iranian-affiliated Telegram account.”

The Associated Press and independent investigative journalist Ken Klippenstein quoted government sources as saying the documents appeared to be authentic. While U.S. officials have not publicly commented on the materials, reports say an investigation is underway into their authenticity and how they became public.

Since the series of Iranian missile attacks targeting military targets in Israel on October 1, in response to Israel's assassination of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other attacks, the world has been awaiting the expected Israeli military response.

NEW: A set of classified US intelligence documents purporting to show information about Israel's plans to strike in Iran have been confirmed as authentic in a report by CNN ( https://t.co/8AVOexA1Y8 ).

Drop Site News has also been reviewing these documents since they were posted… pic.twitter.com/VKOEq9qcbo

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) October 19, 2024

What do leaked US intelligence documents show?

Assuming the documents are authentic, they show that US intelligence agencies – as is well known, despite being close allies – are closely and covertly monitoring Israeli military operations, according to research written by John Quayle for Common Dreams.

CNN quoted an unnamed US official describing the documents as “very disturbing,” although the network did not publish the documents in full.

CNN said that the documents published by the US National Intelligence Agency show the preparations that Israel appears to be making to launch an attack on Iran.

Another NSA document describes Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-ground missiles, also believed to be preparations for an attack on Iran. CNN did not quote or directly show the documents.

nuclear weapons proliferation

Israel is known to have a nuclear weapons program and maintain a nuclear arsenal, but the policy of both Israel and the United States remains to neither acknowledge nor confirm the existence of either.

In one document, the United States specifically refers to Israel's ability to deploy a nuclear weapon, although it classifies the threat of doing so in this case as low.

Here are the docs. Looks like it's just US observations while spying on Israeli drills. Biggest thing I think is the acknowledgment of Israel having nuclear weapons. https://t.co/c1AoQUYbvj pic.twitter.com/QHEedOEhV7

— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) October 20, 2024

Freelance journalist Ken Klippenstein, who was recently banned from X for publishing an internal opposition research file compiled by Donald Trump’s campaign on J.D. Vance’s website, posted images of the documents on his subreddit and criticized mainstream media outlets for refusing to do so.

“As with the J.D. Vance dossier, which the entire media knew about but refused to publish, the media seems to have lost its courage again — and its sense of what’s new,” Klippenstein wrote.

According to Kleinstein's assessment, "The intelligence report includes a brief overview of the various aspects of Israeli military activities that the United States monitors to inform its judgments and conclusions: weapons handling, air defense, ground forces, naval forces, air forces, special forces, and even Israeli nuclear forces.

But even in this case, only the weapons handling and special forces categories were identified as having “medium” predictive power in determining Israel’s action; the rest of the categories were rated as having “low” predictive power.

The second intelligence report is titled “Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Attack on Iran, Conducts Second Large-Force Exercise.” The document details Israeli activities during an apparent “mission rehearsal,” which could be an indication of how Israel will strike Iran.

Based on imagery analysis and other sources, reports indicate that the Israeli Air Force is already conducting covert drone operations over Iran (apparently spying itself), and how, as part of its IAF activity, it has been dealing with ballistic missiles and other air-launched weapons.

(Al-Quds Al-Arabi)