After the shocking loss in Lebanon, an American magazine suggests that Iran will resort to replacing Hezbollah with the Houthis to address its strategic dilemma

The American magazine "The National Interest" suggested that Tehran, which is facing a strategic dilemma as a result of the stunning loss suffered by Hezbollah in Lebanon, will resort to replacing the dominant role that the party was playing with other tools in its regional arsenal, expecting that the Houthis in Yemen will be "the most positive option" for Iran.

Hezbollah has been a powerful proxy for Tehran in the Arab world for decades, serving as a conduit between Iran, the Shiite population in the Arab world, and other militant groups in the region. For a non-Arab state like Iran, Hezbollah’s language and ethnicity have been instrumental in establishing and binding the “axis of resistance.”

“In the past week, Hezbollah’s prestige and hard power have been severely undermined by the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, further assassinations in the military chain of command, a clear breakdown in communications, and widespread Israeli strikes on its bases and assets. With this reversal in fortunes, where does Iran go from here?” he added.

But Tehran has other tools in its regional arsenal and may soon replace Hezbollah’s dominant role. The Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq may be a viable candidate. But the group’s fragmented nature makes it less potent. The Houthis in Yemen may be the most positive option for Iran.

The article’s author said that Iran’s attack on Israel with 181 rockets last week provides a glimpse into how Iran may be changing its strategy. The attack showed a willingness to risk becoming more directly involved in military confrontations. Khamenei even admitted that Iran would strike Israel again if necessary.

“With Israel determined to respond forcefully, a cycle of tit-for-tat exchanges, which could escalate into a wider conflict or even a full-scale war, appears worryingly imminent,” she added. “In this scenario, Iran’s long-range missile warfare could serve as a model for the Houthis, who, unlike Hezbollah, are not based on Israel’s borders.”

The Houthis have already demonstrated their capabilities in Red Sea operations, and by adopting a missile-based strategy, they could expand their reach and increase their value as a proxy for Tehran in the broader conflict against Israel.

“Unlike the fragmented Popular Mobilization Forces, the Houthis are a more cohesive group with a unified leadership structure, closely modeled on Hezbollah and established with the support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” she continued.

The Houthis effectively run large parts of Yemen and have demonstrated their military prowess by targeting American and European interests in the Red Sea, threatening Iran’s regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, and even attacking Israeli ports with long-range missiles, according to the writer.

Another crucial factor, she noted, is Russia. Moscow views the Houthis as a strategic asset as it escalates its provocations toward the West. The emerging relationship between the Houthis and Russia offers Iran a unique opportunity to enhance its regional influence.

By allying with Russia, Tehran can exert greater pressure on regional rivals and leverage the Houthis’ position to disrupt American, European, and Israeli interests. This alliance could also enable Iran to coordinate more effectively with Moscow on broader geopolitical goals, such as countering Western influence in the Middle East and undermining the global order.

It is too early to conclude whether Hezbollah’s retreat will limit Iran’s influence in the region, but it could lead to a shift in strategy. If the Houthis receive significant Russian support, they may prove to be more useful partners.

The writer concluded by saying: “The reality is that how the United States and its allies deal with the Yemeni Houthis and their threat to the vital waterway in the Red Sea is a question that will gain increasing importance in the future.”