British website: Will the next US president expand operations against the Houthis and defeat them?

The British website, Middle East Eye , said that the next US administration is likely to face pressure from defense officials to expand operations against the Houthi group in Yemen. US President Joe Biden declared in 2021 that “this war must end,” when he suspended US offensive military support for Saudi Arabia’s war against the Houthis in Yemen.

The war in Yemen calmed down when Saudi Arabia’s Yemeni allies agreed to a U.N.-brokered truce with the Houthis in April 2022. No sooner had Houthi officials visited Riyadh to talk about a permanent settlement to the war than they began attacking international shipping in the Red Sea.

The attacks ignited a more complex Yemeni conflict, drawing the United States deeper into the fractured country than ever before. In October 2024, American B-2 bombers bombed weapons storage facilities in areas of Yemen controlled by the Houthis.

The strikes highlighted the United States' growing involvement in Yemen since the Houthis began attacking Israel and ships in the Red Sea after Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, in what they say is solidarity with the besieged Palestinians.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, told Middle East Eye that the Biden administration was stuck trying to reconcile two conflicting goals.

“Ending the war in Yemen and protecting freedom of navigation is somewhat contradictory, because truly ending the war would further institutionalize the Houthis,” she added.

Yemen was an early crack in Biden’s approach to the Middle East. U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, dating back to the Obama administration, had angered progressive Democrats. In a tight 2020 presidential race with former President Donald Trump, Biden made ending the war a campaign goal.

But when Biden took office, his criticism of Saudi Arabia’s bombing campaign angered Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The U.S. decision to suspend offensive arms transfers to its oil-rich partner and withdraw air defense systems from the kingdom while it was still under attack from the Houthis fueled Saudi Arabia’s doubts about the United States’ commitment to its security.

The United Nations brokered a ceasefire in the Yemen war in April 2022, and the Biden administration spent the next two years repairing relations with Saudi Arabia.

One way the White House has revived relations has been by opening negotiations to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Analysts and diplomats say those talks so upset Hamas that they contributed to the group’s decision to launch the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel.

“Biden’s Yemen policy has actually set the tone for much of America’s actions in the Middle East over the past four years,” a former senior Arab official told Middle East Eye. “Everyone will be watching how the next administration deals with the Houthis.”

Houthis climb the ladder of the "Axis of Resistance"

But the Houthis have not been affected by the kind of assassinations that have targeted other prominent figures in the axis of resistance. They are working to expand their influence in a way that challenges the United States in a vital trade corridor. Analysts say defeating the Houthis will be a top priority for the next US administration.

Harris vs. Trump on Houthis

Dealing with the Houthi threat has divided the American foreign policy establishment, and has divided the United States from its Arab partners. Late last year, the United States began escorting ships in the Red Sea. In January, the White House authorized strikes against the Houthis.

When the Biden administration went looking for local partners to join its mission, dubbed Operation Sentinel of Prosperity, only Bahrain joined. The next U.S. president is likely to face pressure from defense officials to expand operations against the Houthis.

Frank McKenzie, the former commander of US Central Command, told Middle East Eye that the Houthis defeated the Biden administration because it lacked the “political will” to use heavier firepower against them.

“The Houthis won. We failed. They control the Bab el-Mandeb,” McKenzie said, referring to the strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. “Sooner or later, they’re going to get lucky and kill American service members.”

But other officials are skeptical that the conflict could expand. Gerald Feierstein, a former US ambassador to Yemen under the Obama administration, told Middle East Eye that the most direct way for the US to stop Houthi attacks would be to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.

“If this war ends, the pretext for war will be gone. It will be difficult for the Houthis to justify their attacks,” Feierstein told Middle East Eye, noting that during the brief truce between Hamas and Israel in November, when hostages were released in Gaza, Houthi attacks dropped dramatically.

A ceasefire would make it easier for the United States to persuade partners like Egypt and Saudi Arabia to impose financial sanctions on the group, as well as coordinate efforts to stop the flow of weapons to the group through the Red Sea and Oman, according to Western and American officials.

In January, Biden partially reversed his decision to lift the Houthis’ designation as a terrorist organization. In response to their naval attacks, he named the group a “specially designated global terrorist,” but stopped short of reverting to the more stringent Trump-era “foreign terrorist organization” designation. That designation would make it harder to facilitate humanitarian aid to war-torn Yemen.

“If Trump returns to the White House, he will come and support the anti-Houthi coalition in the US and the Middle East. He will support stronger strikes and re-designating Yemen as a foreign terrorist organisation,” Yemeni expert Mohammed al-Basha told Middle East Eye.

A Harris administration is likely to fall into the “pragmatic camp” that embraces “gradual escalation” with the Houthis, Pasha said. A Harris administration is likely to include more cautious parties that question the effectiveness of strikes and the designation of foreign terrorist organizations.

These pragmatists say that we have seen a decade of sanctions, strikes and ground operations and the Houthis continue to grow in strength.

“Creating a foreign terrorist organization would prevent businesses from importing food, and it wouldn’t really hurt the Houthis because the Houthis have created their own parallel financial structures and networks that are not connected to the Western world,” Pasha said.

That line of thinking would resonate with Harris's foreign policy team, said a former U.S. official in contact with her campaign.

Philip Gordon, Harris's national security adviser, is the author of Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East, a book that questions the United States' ability to shape change in foreign capitals.

But the future Trump administration will also be divided between Iran hawks like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and skeptics of “America First” Middle East entanglements, led by Trump’s vice presidential nominee, J.D. Vance.

The Biden administration has justified its military action against the Houthis in terms of Article II of the U.S. Constitution, which allows the president to use military force without congressional approval. Some members of Congress have criticized that reasoning. And while lawmakers have done little to rein in U.S. operations, any new administration could face scrutiny if it expands the scope of the strikes.

America's Gulf partners are also wary of joining any new war in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia's approach under new US leadership

Analysts say Saudi Arabia and the UAE's experience in Yemen made them question the Biden administration's approach to Yemen from the start.

“US partners in the region – the Gulf states – have discouraged any military response, especially one that would not be short, firm and decisive but tactical,” Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Middle East Eye.

“Their argument was that such a [limited] campaign would not deter the Houthis but rather embolden them without compromising their capabilities once and for all. And that is true,” she added.

Yemeni analyst Basha said Saudi Arabia's approach to Yemen is unlikely to change with any administration.

The war has tarnished Saudi Arabia’s public image, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying to ensure that his Vision 2030 program, designed to attract foreign investment and tourists, is not derailed by low oil prices or foreign wars.

Since October 7, 2023, the truce between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has been tested, and it has held. When Israel bombed the Houthis in July in response to a drone attack on Tel Aviv, Saudi Arabia distanced itself from the attack, which likely crossed its airspace.

The cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal from Yemen was its decision to restore relations with Iran in 2023, in a deal brokered by China.

“Saudi Arabia believes it has bought time by appeasing the Houthis, but this depends on Saudi-Iranian relations, which could explode at any time. For example, if Saudi Arabia normalises relations with Israel or signs a defence treaty with the US,” Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official, told Middle East Eye.

Saudi Arabia and Iran held joint military exercises last month, as Riyadh tried to distance itself from the Israeli attack on Iran.

Analysts say Saudi Arabia's reluctance to intervene in Israel's conflict with Iran is partly due to concerns that the Houthis may resume missile and drone attacks on the kingdom.

In this sense, the Houthis have helped Iran undermine the American security umbrella. Washington is trying to strengthen military relations with Israel and its partners in the Persian Gulf.

However, local events in Yemen may in the future drive the calculations of the United States and its Arab partners.

Having outmaneuvered the United States in controlling the Red Sea, Saab believes the Houthis will not be satisfied with the territory they now control. “The Houthis want to control all of Yemen,” he says.

There are signs that the Houthis are feeling empowered. In July, the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of trying to impose new financial restrictions on their territory. They threatened to wage “war on Riyadh” unless Saudi Arabia backed down. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government responded by easing banking restrictions and resuming flights to Yemen.

Yemeni forces backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates control about 20 percent of Yemen’s territory. The two Gulf states were once allies in Yemen but are now competing for influence. Their proxy militias have frequently clashed in the south of the country. A force backed by the United Arab Emirates now controls the southwestern corner of Yemen.

"There are now almost daily skirmishes. The Houthis only control 200 miles of the Red Sea coast. They want to control the area around Bab al-Mandab," Pasha said.

Source: Middle East Eye