Amidst the chaos within the party, Iran faces a major dilemma after the assassination of Nasrallah

With the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Iran faces a major dilemma: adapting to the loss of a vital ally in the Middle East and maintaining its regional influence.

Hezbollah, which has been armed and funded by Iran for decades, confirmed Nasrallah's death on Saturday after Israel said it had "eliminated" him in an air strike on the Haret Hreik district of Beirut's southern suburbs, a stronghold of the group.

Nasrallah's assassination represents a sharp escalation after the cross-border shelling between Hezbollah and Israel since the start of the war in Gaza nearly a year ago, and threatens to push the entire region into war.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed that Nasrallah's blood "will not be in vain," and Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said his killing would lead to the "destruction" of Israel.

Iran also vowed to avenge the killing of Revolutionary Guard commander Abbas Nilforoushan, along with the Hezbollah leader.

“Nasrallah has played a crucial role in expanding Iran’s influence,” says Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noting that Hezbollah remains the “jewel in the crown” of the Islamic Republic’s regional allies.

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said his assassination “did not change the fact that Iran still does not want to get directly involved” in the conflict.

But it puts Iran in front of a “serious dilemma,” according to Waez, especially since the party is witnessing “a state of overwhelming chaos.”

economic crisis

For Mehdi Zakarian, a professor of international relations in Tehran, the developments showed that the pro-Iranian “resistance front” “was not only unable to contain Israel, but also suffered serious blows.”

The killing of Hassan Nasrallah comes nearly two months after the assassination of the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian Hamas movement, Ismail Haniyeh, on July 31 in Tehran, where he was attending the inauguration ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Iran held Israel responsible for his assassination and vowed to respond.

Zakarian says rebuilding Hezbollah will not be an easy task for Tehran given the growing economic challenges it faces.

“If the government wants to interfere in the reconstruction of Lebanon or re-equip Hezbollah, this will exacerbate the economic crisis in Iran,” the researcher added.

Iran is suffering from the economic impact of international sanctions that have contributed to high inflation, unemployment and a record low value of the rial against the dollar.

Pezeshkian's government has stepped up efforts to help ease onerous sanctions and revive the landmark 2015 nuclear deal that collapsed when the United States unilaterally withdrew from it three years after it was signed.

Analysts believe that Iran has been moving cautiously since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, and is trying to show its strength without provoking a reaction from the United States.

Even during its first-ever direct attack on Israel in April, in response to an airstrike attributed to Israel on an Iranian embassy annex in Damascus, the Jewish state’s defenses and those of its allies intercepted most of the missiles and drones.

Iran said at the time that it had informed the United States and given neighboring countries 72 hours' warning of what it called its "limited" attack on Israel.

However, Ali Vaez believes that Iran “has every interest in trying to preserve what is left of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is Iran’s shield.”

weak and skinny

Mehdi Zakarian adds that “Iran cannot abandon Hezbollah, because in this case it will also lose its other allies” in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, who intervened in the war between Israel and Hamas.

Another major dilemma Iran may face, analysts say, is its ability to reach out to Hezbollah and supply it with weapons.

The Israeli military vowed on Friday to prevent Iran from supplying weapons to Hezbollah through Beirut airport, saying its fighter jets were patrolling its vicinity.

Political commentator Mossadegh Mossadeghpour believes that “it is too late for Iran to support Hezbollah with weapons,” but he believes that the party “will rebuild its ranks as it did in the past.”

Hezbollah's internal communications were also dealt a severe blow when this month's bombings targeted radios used by its members, in an operation blamed on Israel.

Vaez believes that it will be “very difficult” for the Iranians now to communicate with their allies, unlike what happened during the 33-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

He points out that Hezbollah's responses are "weak and feeble" as violence with Israel escalates, considering that "the question is whether it is unwilling or unable to act."

Waez believes that Iran apparently hopes that “Hezbollah will be able to reorganize itself… and launch a major attack on Israel to show that it is still resilient.”

Source: AFP