Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.. What is their impact on Yemen and the UN peace process? (Analysis)

The Houthis’ involvement in the war between Israel and Hamas has affected the progress of negotiations between the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the Houthis. The internal Yemeni dialogue that had been progressing since the agreement between the Yemeni government and the Houthis in April 2022 and the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023 is now facing obstacles.

The conflict has created new obstacles to the internal Yemeni dialogue, slowing the pace of talks and eroding trust between the parties. It has also disrupted the delivery of humanitarian aid to the people.

The Houthis have detained a number of UN officials, diplomats, and international NGO workers operating in Yemen. They have also seized ships and detained crew members who remain in Houthi custody. These developments are further exacerbating the political, security, and economic situation in Yemen, making the prospects for peace even more fragile.

Mediation and Diplomacy

There is growing concern among regional stakeholders and the UN that the Houthis’ involvement in the war could jeopardize the progress made so far in the Yemeni peace process since April 2022.

The UN Special Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, expressed concern that the Yemeni peace talks should not be “collateral damage” to the war between Israel and Hamas. The UN urged the Houthis to abide by the agreements reached and calm tensions to prevent any negative impact on the peace process in Yemen.

In December 2023, after a number of negotiations in Saudi Arabia and Oman, the Yemeni parties committed to a ceasefire and agreed on a roadmap.

The United States said that the Houthi attacks have affected not only regional countries but also the Yemeni people. It expressed concern that the escalation in the region will have a negative impact on the peace talks in Yemen.

Oman and Saudi Arabia share a land border with Yemen and have significant interests in resolving the conflict. Having waged a protracted military campaign against the Houthis since 2015, Saudi Arabia finds itself in a complex geopolitical and security situation. Despite the recent escalation in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia has refrained from taking a more assertive stance against the Houthis.

This delicate balance reflects Saudi Arabia’s delicate position towards the conflict in its neighbourhood. The Saudi position can be understood from the fact that it has engaged in negotiations with the Houthis and does not want any military confrontation that would hinder the achievements made in this regard.

Oman is mediating between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and is making diplomatic efforts to reach a political solution. Muscat condemned the Israeli attack on the Houthis, saying it would further escalate and complicate the situation. In response to the Houthi attacks, the United States and the United Kingdom launched a number of missile and drone strikes on Houthi military targets inside Yemen.

Oman condemned these targeted attacks and expressed concern about attacks by “friendly countries.” Despite the deteriorating situation and the Houthis’ involvement in the war against Israel, Oman and Saudi Arabia want to maintain the progress made in their dealings with the Houthis.

Internal security and stability

Beyond the attack on ships in the Red Sea, the Houthis have taken a number of provocative actions that threaten to derail the relative peace that has been in place in the country since April 2022. There are reports of increased troop build-up and violent armed clashes in several parts of the country, and the overall security environment remains unpredictable. This could lead to a flare-up and a dangerous deterioration of the situation.

In June 2024, the Houthis seized three Yemenia Airlines planes in Sanaa, stranding hundreds of pilgrims in Riyadh as the planes were supposed to fly them home. The Yemeni government accused the Houthis of escalation, while the Houthis alleged that the government had “looted the company’s revenues.”

In June 2024, the Houthis detained 11 UN staff from different parts of the country. They also kidnapped a number of Yemenis working for humanitarian organizations and relief agencies in Yemen. Despite the UN Secretary-General’s appeal for their unconditional release, the Houthis continue to hold them hostage.

On August 3, the Houthis seized the headquarters of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in Sana’a. After more than two weeks, they returned the office to the United Nations on August 19.

Such unilateral and provocative actions by the Houthis at a time when significant gains have been made pose major challenges to restoring peace and stability in the country. They also create obstacles to the smooth delivery of humanitarian aid to millions of Yemenis who are in dire need of assistance to survive.

Economic impact

Yemen’s economy remains extremely fragile, and reviving economic life is a priority for the country. Political unity and stability in the country are essential to reviving the economy. With Houthi attacks on the Red Sea and the slowdown in peace talks, the country’s economy continues to suffer.

Oil exports, a major source of revenue, have been severely affected by the country’s prolonged conflict. Due to damage to oil infrastructure during the war and the lack of foreign investment in the energy sector, Yemen’s economy has been severely affected.

Infrastructure across the country remains damaged and needs to be rebuilt. In such a bleak economic situation, the Houthis’ involvement in the war between Israel and Hamas is an additional obstacle to Yemen’s prospects for economic recovery.

In July 2024, a significant step forward was taken when the two sides reached an agreement to cooperate on two critical issues: Yemenia Airlines and the country’s banking sector. The two sides agreed to implement measures aimed at unifying the Central Bank of Yemen, a crucial step towards economic stability.

In addition, they agreed to resume air links with Jordan, Egypt and India. These two recent developments represent important progress towards restoring basic services and improving the country’s economic landscape.

Humanitarian concerns

More than a decade of instability in Yemen has led to a humanitarian crisis, with more than 18.2 million people, including 9.8 million children, in dire need of humanitarian assistance.14 The ongoing civil war has also disrupted education, putting millions of children out of school.

Diseases such as cholera have spread across large parts of the country. Rising tensions in the Red Sea have also affected the delivery of vital aid, with ships carrying humanitarian supplies facing increasing challenges.

At this critical juncture, a nationwide ceasefire and consensus on a national roadmap for the future political process are essential to stabilizing the country and meeting its urgent needs. The Houthi escalation is also severely hampering the delivery of aid to the people.

India's concerns

India is deeply concerned about the recent developments in the Red Sea and Yemen. India has huge economic and strategic interests in the safety and security of the sea lanes of communication in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden. Any disruption to this vital sea lane would impact India’s economy and security.

Moreover, India remains wary of a possible resurgence of piracy off the Somali coast. India has maintained a continuous naval presence in the Gulf of Aden since 2008 to combat piracy activities. The Indian Navy has also provided security to a large number of merchant ships passing through the region from pirate attacks.

Moreover, a large number of international merchant ships have Indian crew members who often face difficulties when the ships are seized or hijacked. This is another area of concern for India.

Throughout the crisis in Yemen, India has supported the government and people of Yemen. India has also provided food, medicine and other humanitarian assistance to Yemen. India is also concerned about the activities of terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen, which find safe haven due to the conducive environment in the country.

At present, India recognizes the Presidential Leadership Council in Aden. India has repeatedly called for a Yemeni-led political process to build a future roadmap for the country. A unified and stable Yemen is positive for India from political, economic and security perspectives.

After a long hiatus, India has now appointed a non-resident Ambassador to Yemen. For its part, India has always offered all possible support to Yemen in dealing with the crisis. There is immense potential for economic engagement with Yemen, which can be explored once the situation stabilizes.

Uncertain future

Yemen is facing multiple crises, and the Houthis’ involvement in the war between Israel and Hamas has dimmed the prospects for peace. The situation in the Red Sea, exacerbated by Houthi attacks, has added further complexity to mediation efforts and weakened the possibility of a peaceful solution in Yemen. The Houthis’ actions in the Red Sea have also raised doubts among mediators about their commitment to the peace process, deepening the trust gap.

While the United Nations, along with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Oman, has played a pivotal role in bringing the Yemeni parties to the negotiating table and achieving relative calm, there is growing concern that the Houthis’ involvement in the war between Israel and Hamas could undermine years of diplomatic efforts to restore peace and unity in Yemen.

Source: Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (Indian) - Translation: Yemen Youth Net