Bloomberg: Houthi attacks on ships reveal new international problems in maritime freedom

An article published by Bloomberg considered the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea as a "horrific precedent," considering that the group has overturned freedom of the seas in a crucial region, but in return paid a very modest price. It criticized the United States for not doing enough against Iran's allies in Yemen.

“The Houthis have posed a major challenge to global maritime security, disrupting shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb,” noted Paul Brand, the author of the article. “Despite U.S. efforts under Operation Sentinel, the group has cut off traffic in the Suez Canal and threatened environmental disaster.”

According to the author, this crisis highlights the low cost of projecting force as well as what he describes as “strategic synergy” among America’s adversaries. He considered that the biggest and most ominous surprise for the world order is the Houthis’ launch of the most serious challenge to freedom of the seas in decades.

The Houthis began their campaign against shipping through the Bab al-Mandab, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, in late 2023. “They are attacking ostensibly out of sympathy for the Palestinian people, but also to gain status within the so-called Axis of Resistance, a group of proxies in the Middle East cultivated by Iran,” the writer said.

In January, Washington responded with Operation Prosperity Sentinel, featuring defensive efforts (largely by two U.S. destroyers) to protect shipping from drones and missiles, as well as airstrikes against Houthi offensive capabilities inside Yemen. The results were mediocre at best.

The Houthis have cut traffic through the Suez Canal by more than half, depriving Egypt of toll revenue. Nearly a year later, the group appears less deterred than emboldened: It recently disabled an oil tanker, threatening a spill with catastrophic environmental consequences. The waterway, which carries 10% to 15% of global trade, has become a kill zone.

This saga brings together old and new dynamics. The Bab el-Mandeb has long been a flashpoint for conflict. The strait is surrounded by instability in southern Arabia and the Horn of Africa. This has led to conflict and foreign intervention for decades, but the Houthi campaign also exposes newer global problems.

Helping Iran and its allies

One of these reasons or problems is the low cost of projecting force. The Houthis are not a conventional military force; they do not even control all of Yemen. However, they have used drones and missiles to control access to vital seas.

The Houthis have been helped to do this by Iran, which has provided the weapons and know-how to manufacture them. But the Red Sea crisis still shows how seemingly small actors can use relatively cheap capabilities to expand their destructive reach.

The second advantage is the strategic synergy between America’s enemies. The Houthis have become more aggressive thanks to guidance from Iran and Hezbollah. Since October 2023, they have allowed most Chinese shipping to pass unharmed. The Houthis have also received encouragement—and apparently direct support—from Russia, which is keen to exact revenge on Washington.

Beijing and Moscow reap geopolitical rewards when America bears the brunt of Middle East conflicts, so both are willing to let this crisis fester, or even make it worse, the author says.

A third factor that is further inflaming matters is America’s aversion to escalation, which is rooted in military overreach. A global superpower has been reduced to an inconclusive war with a group of Yemeni extremists, and it is evasive to claim that this very extremism makes the Houthis “undeterrible.”

The fundamental problem here is that Washington has hesitated to take stronger measures—such as sinking an Iranian intelligence ship supporting the Houthis, or targeting the infrastructure that supports their rule inside Yemen—for fear of inflaming a tense regional situation.

This approach has limited the risk of escalation in the near term, but it has allowed Tehran and the Houthis to keep the confrontation at their preferred temperature. It also reflects the underlying fatigue of the U.S. military, which lacks enough cruise missiles, laser-guided bombs, attack aircraft, and warships to continue the campaign more aggressively without compromising its readiness for conflicts elsewhere.

Houthis and Freedom of the Seas

Thus, there is a fourth characteristic: what the author describes as the “rottenness of norms” that the international community has taken for granted. In fact, the global commercial damage caused by the Houthis has been limited, thanks to the resilience of the shipping networks that support the global economy.

But the precedent is horrific: the Houthis have upended freedom of the seas in a crucial region and paid a very modest price.

Russia’s war in Ukraine simultaneously reaffirms another fundamental principle, the rule against forced invasion, as rogue actors challenge the global rules that underpin the relative prosperity, security, and stability of our post-1945 world.

A dramatic course correction by the United States may not be imminent. President Joe Biden is still pursuing a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which would at least deny the Houthis and other Iranian proxies an excuse for violence, even if no one is really sure that it will end the Red Sea shipping attacks. He hopes to make it through the presidential election without further trouble with Tehran.

But this blundering approach may not last long. Whoever assumes the presidency in 2025 will have to confront the fact that America is losing the Red Sea conflict, with all the potentially sinister global consequences that could entail.