What are the future scenarios regarding the growing Saudi-Emirati competition in Hadhramaut?

A recent analytical paper said that recent years have witnessed increasing competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen, especially in the eastern Hadhramaut Governorate, which is a strategic governorate rich in oil and constitutes a third of the country’s area.

The research paper issued by the Mokha Center for Studies addressed the possible scenarios for the path of Saudi-Emirati competition in Hadhramaut.

The study suggested three options, the first of which is to maintain the status quo with a fragile balance of power.

She added, "The second path is to reach a settlement between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that guarantees their interests within the framework of a unified Yemeni state."

The study turned to the third path, which is the sharp escalation of competition, which may lead to direct confrontations between the forces supported by both parties.

She pointed out that this competition stems from the two countries' aspirations to enhance their geopolitical influence in the region.

She noted that Hadhramaut is of special importance to Saudi Arabia due to its long border with it and the strong tribal and economic relations that link it to the major Hadhrami tribes in the Kingdom.

She said, "The UAE had little connection to Hadhramaut before its participation in the Arab coalition in 2015, but it saw this as an opportunity to strengthen its political and military presence in Yemen, through a policy of strategic deployment outside its borders."

She added: The UAE focused on controlling the coasts, ports and strategic islands in southern Yemen to enhance its influence in the Indian Ocean and the Horn of Africa. To achieve this, it established local forces such as the "Hadhrami Elite Forces" to control Mukalla and the surrounding areas, and supported the security services and provided resources to ensure its control.

The paper pointed out that Saudi Arabia, in contrast, adopted a set of policies and initiatives to confront the growing Emirati influence in Hadhramaut and to strengthen the role of the legitimate government and the societal components loyal to it.

She explained that Riyadh supported the formation of the "Hadhramaut National Council" in June 2023 as a political entity that expresses the aspirations of Hadrami society, in addition to financing development projects in the governorate to enhance stability and economic recovery.

The paper reviewed the competitive escalation steps between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Hadhramaut.

She said that while the UAE pushed the "Southern Transitional Council" to reject the formation of the "Hadhramaut National Council" and organize provocative events, Saudi Arabia supported the legitimate government and the "Homeland Shield" forces to strengthen its military and security position in the governorate.

She stressed that the situation in Hadhramaut remains complex and sensitive, which requires calming policies by all parties, and working to achieve settlements that guarantee the interests of all within the framework of a unified and stable Yemen.