3 Key Israeli Questions About a Possible Ground Operation in Lebanon

The most prominent question among Israelis today is: Will the Israeli army conduct a ground operation in Lebanon? If it does, will it be limited? What is its likely duration? Israeli military analysts do not hide the fact that such an operation, if carried out, will lead to losses in the ranks of their army, in light of Hezbollah’s long-standing preparations for it.

On Monday, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem announced in a televised speech that the party is prepared for any Israeli ground operation and its forces are ready for a ground engagement, despite Tel Aviv’s assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on Friday.

According to analysts, the Israeli army is preparing to carry out a ground operation, and is awaiting the decision of the political level (the government), under the pretext of establishing a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

Since September 23, Israel has launched the "most violent and extensive" attack on Lebanon since the beginning of the confrontations with Hezbollah about a year ago, which has resulted, until Monday afternoon, in no less than 962 deaths, including children and women, and 2,778 wounded, according to Anadolu Agency's monitoring of statements from the Lebanese authorities, amid fears of the outbreak of a regional war.

While sirens continue to sound at an unprecedented rate across Israel, following heavy Hezbollah firing of missiles, drones and artillery shells targeting military sites and settlements, amid a strict blackout by the Israeli military censorship of human and material losses, according to observers.

Fighting and losses

Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel wrote for Al-Ithnayn: "One question remains unanswered: Will the air attack, which has achieved such far-reaching achievements, be supplemented by a ground attack in southern Lebanon?"

He pointed out in an analytical article that "the mayors of the cities near the northern border (Lebanon), whose residents were evacuated, are pressing for such a step (a ground operation), as are senior officers from the army's Northern Command."

He continued: "They say there is an urgent need to address the military infrastructure built by Hezbollah, especially the elite Radwan force."

He added that this "structure exists near the border, above and below ground, and was built in the years following the last war in Lebanon in 2006, and this must be addressed by sending ground forces, as is the case in the Gaza Strip."

However, Harel believed that the ground operation "requires difficult fighting and will result in casualties among the Israeli army."

"Various plans for this have been discussed over the years, from limited entry into areas of commanding terrain to occupying all territory south of the Litani River," he continued.

He added: "Given the preparations Hezbollah has made over the years for an Israeli ground attack, this will not be an easy task, even if many Hezbollah members flee north."

He stated that "the discussion in Israel is about the question of whether such an operation is necessary, and whether another strike is needed now to cause Hezbollah to collapse and weaken its position and capabilities for years to come."

"One of the common claims in recent days is that Israel has overestimated Hezbollah and for years made itself more afraid of it," he said.

He added: "But this is not the first time that an army or organization has gone through a major crisis during war that defies previous expectations."

Referring to the "Al-Aqsa Flood" attack, Harel stressed that "Israel should understand this better than most people, as this is almost what happened to the army's Gaza Division on October 7."

On that day, Hamas attacked military bases and settlements adjacent to Gaza, killing and capturing Israelis, in response to “the daily crimes of the Israeli occupation against the Palestinian people and their holy sites, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque,” according to the movement.

Harel warned that "the army's recent achievements have encouraged a mood of arrogance in the television studios, where broadcasters and experts compete in assessing the enemy's weakness and praising Israeli genius."

He continued: "We must remember that the final whistle has not yet blown, and that our enemies, from Iran to Hezbollah and Hamas, are still capable of responding, even if they suffer great damage."

Just a matter of time

"The army is completing important operations as part of preparations for a ground maneuver in southern Lebanon," Amir Bohbot, a military analyst for the Israeli news website Walla, said on Monday.

He stated that "accurate intelligence information is being collected about Hezbollah's military preparations in general and the Radwan Force in particular."

He continued: "New operational plans are also being compiled that are in line with the changes in the territory of southern Lebanon and with Hezbollah personnel, after thousands of attacks launched by the Israeli army in the region."

Bukhbut quoted unnamed Israeli security officials as saying that "a large part of the preparations for the maneuver (the ground operation) were required after the damage to Hezbollah's command and control systems."

He added: "We should exploit the relative separation between the top of the organization and the field commanders and the difficulty of transmitting orders within Hezbollah at the required time."

On Monday, Qassem stressed that since Nasrallah’s assassination, “resistance operations have continued at the same pace and more… We are following up on command and control according to the party’s structure, and there are alternatives for each leader when he is injured.”

Bukhbut added that "forces are being mobilized in the Northern Command, and the training of the brigades and battalions that have moved north is focused on preparing for maneuver, based on the lessons learned from the fighting in Gaza and adapting to Lebanon."

Officials were quoted as saying, "There is a consensus at the army's high command and political level that the ground maneuver is only a matter of time."

"The ground maneuver aims to destroy targets, but also to demonstrate the strength of the Israeli army in the Middle East," an unnamed security source said.

Imminent scenario

Reserve Lieutenant Colonel Kobi Lavi, the military affairs analyst for the Israeli Broadcasting Authority (official), claimed to Al-Ithnayn that “Israel’s goal from a potential ground maneuver deep inside Lebanon is not occupation, but rather to remove Hezbollah elements from the border to ensure the return of the residents of the northern towns to their homes.”

He added: "The Lebanese army can play a role in the next stage in the equation of ensuring security in the buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon in a way that removes Hezbollah from the circle of influence."

Lavi continued: "If the situation continues as it is and the rocket fire from Lebanon continues, Israel will have no choice but to try to undermine Hezbollah in a way that will make it lose its ability to pose a threat."

He concluded by considering that "a ground operation in Lebanon is one of the possible imminent scenarios."

To accept a ceasefire, Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz, in letters he sent to his counterparts in 25 countries, stipulated that Hezbollah move north of the Litani River and disarm it, according to the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation (official) on Monday.

Since October 8, 2023, Lebanese and Palestinian factions in Lebanon, most notably Hezbollah, have been exchanging daily shelling with the Israeli army across the “Blue Line” separating the two sides, resulting in a total of no less than 1,801 deaths, including children and women, and 8,877 wounded, according to Anadolu Agency’s monitoring of official statements.

These factions demand an end to the war waged by Israel with American support on the Gaza Strip since October 7; which has left more than 137 thousand Palestinians dead and wounded, most of them children and women, and more than 10 thousand missing, amid massive destruction and a deadly famine, in one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world. For decades, Israel has occupied Arab lands in Lebanon, Syria and Palestine.

Source: Anadolu Agency