How could Russia use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and what are the difficulties?

It is not known exactly how many tactical weapons Russia has, but estimates suggest its stockpile is around 2,000 ready warheads, about 10 times the number the United States has, she added, noting that tactical warheads can be quietly transported and launched using conventional weapons systems that Russia has already deployed in Ukraine.

In theory, these weapons would not be used against large cities like Kyiv or Lviv but to punch a hole in the Ukrainian front line, as is the case in the Donbass region, where Russia is concentrating much of its military efforts.

However, the consequences of a tactical nuclear detonation would be scorched earth, flattened buildings, possibly thousands of dead, contaminated rivers, and persistent radiation that would leave the affected area uninhabitable.

The impact depends on the size of the warhead used. A 10-kiloton bomb would cause severe damage and radiation poisoning to anything within a 800-meter radius, leaving few or no survivors, and causing damage up to 10 miles (16 kilometers), according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

According to George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War, what Soviet doctrine was supposed to do was move mechanized infantry, put in protective suits, into tanks, then into cars, and into the nuclear mushroom cloud.

great difficulties

Barros believes that the elite soldiers with the skills needed for such an operation have long since died out, killed in the early stages of the war, while the Kremlin's armored vehicles have deteriorated to the point of being ineffective.

Barros explains that Russian doctrine stipulates the use of tactical nuclear weapons to destroy a large central target such as areas where there are large numbers of aircraft, tanks, infantry, military equipment and ammunition.

Therefore, Baros says, with the Ukrainian military being so decentralized and under-resourced, there is no large, enticing target to justify such a strike, adding that using a tactical nuclear weapon in these situations would mean it would be pointless and of no military advantage.

Putin won't use it.

Despite Putin’s fiery rhetoric, Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine uses Western missiles inside Russian territory, Barros said. “I don’t think that’s the kind of escalation that Western officials are worried about,” Barros added.

Geopolitical pressure and the risk of Russia losing support from its allies are also factors preventing the conflict from going nuclear, Barros adds, noting that Putin’s talk of nuclear war has previously upset Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both of whom have expressed fear of such an option.

Ignoring these pleas for moderation will only increase Russia's international isolation, drawing rebukes and potential loss of cooperation from its partners, said William Courtney, a former U.S. negotiator with the commission that implemented the test ban treaty with the Soviet Union.

What's happening now?

Courtney added that by the time Moscow issues the threats, Kiev will be identifying military targets inside Russia that are within tempting range of Storm Shadow missiles. Military experts have noted that the Kremlin will have already moved many of its most valuable assets out of reach.

However, there are some things that cannot be moved, such as airports, vehicle repair centers, oil refineries, and headquarters. Direct strikes on these facilities would significantly disrupt Putin’s war machine.

Source: Sunday Times