Washington Post: 7 scenarios for who wins the US presidency

Anyone who thinks they know what will happen on Election Day is either deluded or very smart, The Washington Post reported, because its poll averages show that all seven swing states are separated by two points or less, meaning that if things move by just two points from where they think they stand, you could see a sweep for one candidate and a largely decisive election.

In light of all this uncertainty, Aaron Blake, in an analysis for the newspaper, reviews the most likely scenarios, as things stand now, and how either candidate might achieve victory, in 7 scenarios in approximate order of plausibility.

1. Harris wins through the “blue wall”

That seems to be the most likely scenario, according to the Washington Post's polling averages, meaning it's about a point more likely than the others. The reason is that Harris currently has a slight lead in four of the seven swing states — Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — allowing her to get 276 electoral votes, down from 270 needed.

All that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris needs in this case are the "blue wall" states, i.e. those where the Democrats have a majority, which are the three northern states, plus the second congressional district in Nebraska, where the candidate is ahead by about 10 points, which gives her exactly 270 votes.

However, the analyst pointed out that white and older voters, who usually lean toward Republicans, may change the course of this scenario, even though these swing states were relatively Democratic before the era of Republican candidate Donald Trump.

2. Trump may win through the East

Trump's path to victory is a little more difficult, the analyst guessed, and his campaign seemed to be putting a lot of confidence in three eastern states: Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, although polls have narrowed his chances in Pennsylvania to less than one point in favor of Harris, although he has maintained a slight lead in Georgia, and he may also extend his slight lead in North Carolina.

If Trump goes that route, his gains with black voters could play a significant role, since Georgia and North Carolina have the largest black populations among swing states, and he and his allies have suggested that his experience with prosecution could broaden his appeal among black men who feel unfairly targeted by the justice system.

3. Trump rides the sun belt

The analyst argued that the most logical path for Trump is mostly through the southern half of the country, with the addition of a northern state, which polls suggest is in the Sun Belt states, particularly Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. The downside to this path is that it requires Trump to win more states, because even if he wins those four states, he will have to bring one from the north.

The three states where Trump is leading are also states that were reliably Republican until recently, with Arizona and Georgia not turning blue before 2020, since the 1990s, and North Carolina turning blue only once since the 1970s, in 2008.

4. A landslide victory for Harris

It's entirely plausible that Harris could win, given her current two-point lead in national polls, which would allow her to sweep the seven swing states, but if the polls are as inaccurate as they were in 2012 when they underestimated former President Barack Obama's victory, she would win at least five swing states and about 300 electoral votes.

If Harris succeeds, we will talk a lot about how women will do a great job for her, not only because she will be the first female president, but also because abortion rights have proven to be a powerful issue in the 2022 midterm elections after Democrats put on one of the best showings in the recent history of the incumbent president's party.

And if Harris wins by a landslide, the question may be how close she is to winning her “rolling” states like Florida and Texas, which will undoubtedly be like cherries on the cake for her, i.e. to consolidate the victory, rather than being decisive in the electoral calculations.

5. A landslide victory for Trump

As anyone who bets on the election will tell you, and as any panicked Democrat knows, the polls underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020, so if the polls in every state are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump wins every swing state except Nevada, and if they are as wrong as they were in 2020, Trump wins all seven swing states.

Either way, the electoral college margin will look much like it did in 2016, when Trump won 306 electoral votes, but this time, he may combine that with winning the popular vote, unlike his loss by two points eight years ago.

How this might happen is because Trump’s big gains in the polls among black and Latino voters — especially men — will come Election Day, and other groups may turn to Trump as voters turn away from a woman in ways not seen in the polls.

6. Heterogeneous mixture

The above paths and winning scenarios ignore the real possibility that we could see something unexpected that doesn't make any sense at all, which is that the North and Sun Belt states could be divided, and that could happen for a number of reasons.

Harris might lose a northern state but make up for it with Nevada and North Carolina, a state Trump won twice but whose population is changing rapidly, and Trump might win Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia, because those states are close enough that they could swing either way.

7. Equal

A tie is not likely, but theoretically we could still have a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, which could happen if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but loses the rest and Nebraska's 2nd District, where she has a big lead in the polls.

Assuming Harris wins as expected in Nebraska's 2nd District, the most likely scenario for a tie is for Trump to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina or Georgia, but not any other swing states.

At this point, we will have what is called a “contingent election,” where the House of Representatives elects the president by casting one vote for each state’s delegation, and which party controls the most delegations will depend on the results of the 2024 election, but the Republicans are more likely to win at the moment.

Source: Washington Post