Trump's return to the White House and the Yemeni file.. What could happen?

Four years after leaving the White House, US President-elect Donald Trump is returning for a new term, which has raised questions about the approach that the next US administration will take towards the Yemen file and the threats posed by the Iranian-backed Houthi militias, especially attacks on maritime navigation in the Red Sea.

Trump's ambiguity and often sudden and unexpected behavior make it difficult to predict his true orientations, because he does not follow coherent paths and may take unexpected steps. However, according to observers, the Houthi attacks on maritime navigation, relations with Saudi Arabia, and the position on Iran are important factors that will determine the direction of American foreign policy regarding the Yemen file.

Given his previous term in office, Trump has been less confrontational and more inward-looking. Between January 20, 2017 and January 20, 2021, Trump took three steps, two of which had a decisive impact on the situation in Yemen.

The first step was his administration’s insistence on stopping the attack launched by the legitimate government forces and the Arab coalition to liberate the coastal city of Hodeidah from the Houthi militia, and pressure to pass the Stockholm Agreement in 2018, which ultimately led to keeping the city and its port under the control of the militia and enabling it to obtain advanced weapons from Iran.

The second step was the complete US abandonment of Saudi Arabia after the attacks launched by the Houthi militia on oil facilities and Aramco in 2019 and the cessation of logistical support. The third step was Trump’s designation of the Houthi militia as a foreign terrorist organization in his last days, but his successor Joe Biden quickly rescinded it after only a few weeks.

Trump's Yemen Policy Prospects

With Trump returning to the White House again, from which he will begin his work on January 21, 2025, many challenges have emerged in Yemen in the face of American efforts, most notably: Houthi naval attacks on navigation and ships linked to the occupation - according to what the Houthis say - along with US and British ships, and limited strikes led by the United States against Houthi naval capabilities.

Many Yemeni observers are determined to continue the policy of airstrikes on organizations classified as terrorist in Yemen, such as Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and their members, while opinions differ on the behavior towards the Houthi militia, noting that the United States has been launching airstrikes for about a year, in cooperation with Britain, to target what it describes as “Houthi military capabilities that pose a threat to freedom of navigation.”

Trump had said during his election campaign that "if he were president instead of Biden, the Houthis would not have dared to attack shipping." On the other hand, Trump relies on the principle of military withdrawal, reducing costs, focusing on the interior, and mobilizing resources to confront China, and on the third hand, he adopts an anti-Iranian position through sanctions and negotiations together.

It is not known for sure what Trump will do about the Houthis in Yemen, with the pro-Iranian militia vowing to continue its naval attacks, despite their ineffectiveness, according to Knights, the American researcher, but he is expected to reclassify the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, which will have a significant impact on Houthi financing, in addition to expanding US strikes on additional Houthi militia targets, according to Knights himself.

There is great reliance in Yemeni political circles supporting legitimacy that the change in the US administration will lead to the resumption of the battle in Yemen and the Yemeni government will obtain multi-form support to confront the Houthi militias, according to what writer Mustafa Naji wrote on the X platform.

But he said, "Trump does not want to wage war for his soldiers, and he will not bear the burden of a military battle in Yemen alone, and he will not stand against the desire of Saudi Arabia, which does not want to return to the square of battles around it, especially in Yemen."

He added: "Therefore, resuming the war with an American green light and without a party paying the cost is unlikely, especially since the forces of legitimacy are divided in light of the Transitional Council's stagnation regarding any new political formula that may be formed by the end of the battle with the Houthis."

He continued: "The Houthis may resort to reducing their threats to international navigation, thus avoiding any international military response, and Trump will do nothing more than confirm the current classification of the Houthi group or tighten the classification somewhat."

But in both cases, this does not mean an existential threat to the Houthi group, which will go to activate peace to gain time and appease Saudi desires, and thus avoid the military path without reaching peace. However, no one expects the reactions of Trump, who is truly determined to crush Iran. The Houthis’ intervention in the theater of war for a year means that they have become a potential target in this crushing,” according to Naji.

On the other hand, with the continued deterioration of Hezbollah and the killing of a number of its leaders who were in Yemen, whose names are being revealed successively, and Iran’s retreat from its threats to target the occupation with Trump’s victory, this may lead to a major collapse in the Shiite Tehran axis in the Arab Levant, in the next stage.

This could have major repercussions on the strength and cohesion of the Houthi group itself. It could lead to the Houthis, in order to maintain cohesion, launching additional attacks in the Red Sea or the Gulf, in which their calculations are militarily incorrect, which would lead to Saudi Arabia’s intervention with American support from Trump once again.